Daily Brief Archive: July 16, 2026 — U.S. & Hong Kong Stock Analysis
Free previewU.S. Markets
- June CPI fell 0.4% m/m — the biggest drop since April 2020 — with the annual rate at 3.5% vs 3.8% expected
- Warsh's debut testimony leaned hawkish — 'not mission accomplished' — a hot speech cooling a cold print
- IBM crashed 25.2%, its worst day in 115 years, on a Q2 warning: customer budgets shifted to AI hardware
- Memory's second leg down: Micron -12% over two days (China competition + profit-taking), SanDisk -8%, SK Hynix ADR -9%
- PayPal +17% on the Stripe/Advent/Block consortium's $53B, $60.50-a-share bid
- Bank earnings bloomed: JPMorgan smashed, Morgan Stanley profit +58%, BlackRock/BNY and the Canadian trio at records
Hong Kong
- HK screeners nearly empty this morning — volume hasn't woken up; only Seres made a channel
- Alibaba +2.5% at HK$116.20, pressing the 50-day; the AI re-rating is +19.9% on the week
- Asymchem printed a record HK$138.70 before settling at 133.70; the CXO duo's high-for-high resonance continues
- Seres bounced 5.2% this morning — a dead cat after guiding to a RMB 1.5–1.8B interim loss, 67.5% below its IPO price
- Tencent at HK$478, +3.6% on the week, as the tech repair broadens to second-tier names
Today's Watchlist
- Earnings minefield week: TSM/ASML ripples spreading; 7/22 brings TSLA and the already-warned IBM
- PayPal's board meets 7/20 on the bid; payments peers (Block, ACI Worldwide) re-rate in sympathy
- Position tripwires: MU $880, TSLA $390, AMD $518, BEAM $30.50, CELH $29.60
- IBM post-mortem: the stop was gapped straight through — halving size into event windows is now written into the rulebook
- Geopolitics cooling watch: energy fell off the hot list and Valero gave back — the Hormuz premium is being digested
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