Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (8 issues)
Digesting an unlock of this size takes weeks, and after fresh lows there is no safe left side; the video-model launch is a known catalyst — if you want the event, pay for the ticket after a right-side signal prints
Down 15.62% to HK$216, week two of the joint sell-side love letter failing — down 76% in three months because the market wants cash flow and conventions don't generate it. Stay far away.
A stock that treats every catalyst as an exit window hasn't finished clearing its holder base; if even four days of WAIC heat can't hold the price, the next stop is a retest of the low.
Up 3.3% this morning at HK$230.00 — a technical gasp after the lock-up halving; of the three conditions (volume dry-up, base, 20-day reclaim), zero are met — keep waiting
Falling on expanded volume the day the unlock landed proves supply dwarfs the 'exhaustion' bid. Restated a third day: no catching, no chasing short, wait for the turnover.
Restated a second day: supply shocks don't bottom on price, they bottom on exhaustion. RSI just touched 30 — unlock regimes have historically camped in the 20s for weeks.
Supply-shock declines don't bottom on price, they bottom on exhaustion. Shorting risks a squeeze the moment AI sentiment reignites — stand on neither side.
The -68%-in-a-quarter AI star at RSI 31; the valuation squeeze is mid-flight — skip the first knife