Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-02LongHK$78.3 → open → HK$88.4+12.90%
Brief History (23 issues)
Down 1.34% to HK$88.40, off 5.4% on the week with RSI fading to 47 — below the 20-day but still holding the 50-day at 86.3. Domestic price-war margin bleed versus record exports; staying long into the Aug-29 print, hard stop on a close below 86.3.
A quiet -1.00% drift to HK$88.70, holding the 50-day but down 5% on the week with RSI softening to 47.8: record July exports can't fully mask the domestic price war eating into margins, and the Aug 29 earnings report is the litmus test. 22 analysts see 39.6% upside—holding the position, but watching that print closely.
Down 2.82% with Hong Kong autos broadly weak (NIO and Geely both off over 4%), RSI a neutral 50.2, below the 20-day and 6.6% under the 200-day; 22 analysts still leave 38.0% of upside but the intermediate trend needs repair — maintain, do not add.
Down 0.60% with RSI at 55.2, above the 20-day at HK$90.94 and 50-day at HK$86.51 but 4.5% under the 200-day at HK$96.06; 22 analysts see HK$124.09, 35.2% above spot — position maintained.
Up 0.33% though the week is down 2.4%, with RSI neutral at 51.9 and price still below the 200-day at HK$96.20. The HK$123.97 consensus target implies 37.5% upside. Maintaining the long, though momentum is weak.
Up 0.28% though the week is down 2.5%, with RSI back to neutral at 51.8 and price slipping out of the strong zone above the 50-day at HK$86.46. The HK$125.23 consensus target implies 39.0% upside. Maintaining the long, but momentum has softened.
Above the 20/50-day lines; a break of the SMA200 (HK$96.4) opens HK$100, stop at HK$85 (below the SMA50). Strong exports support, but domestic demand and the price war cap upside — size moderately.
Up 0.70% above the 20- and 50-day with a healthy RSI of 62.5, and a HK$124.41 consensus target implying 32.2% upside. Maintaining the long.
Down 1.21% but still above the 20- and 50-day with a healthy RSI of 62.1, and a HK$124.41 consensus target implying 32.7% upside; maintaining the long.
Continue holding (maintaining long). The technical setup is at its most favorable point in this advance: bullish short-term alignment, strong momentum (+28.9% on the month) with RSI at 65.1 still short of overbought, and price challenging the 200-day (HK$96.78) that decides the intermediate trend. The HK$86 stop sits at the lower edge of overlapping 20-/50-day support (HK$86–87) with roughly one ATR of buffer; a break there voids the short-term structure. The HK$104 target sits above the 200-day as the first objective once the long-term average is reclaimed, implying about 10.7% upside — well below the 32.4% analyst consensus, deliberately conservative. Fundamentals add support: vertical-integration cost advantage plus overseas expansion give real-cash-flow names relative appeal while the memory and optics narratives are impaired.
The +50% QoQ per-unit profit surprise isn't fully priced, and the trend structure above the 50-day is intact; with the interim report not due until late August, pullbacks before then are position-management questions, not directional ones
Existing long stays on: the export narrative plus a reclaimed double-average base. Add on HK$85-87.5 dips, stop HK$81.5 (below the 20-day), targeting the 200-day/HK$100 zone
Sell-side momentum, the Q2 inflection setup and a +6.1% weekly trend — with +12.9% booked since inclusion, this position has earned the right to wait for August's answer
Down 2.8% this morning at HK$88.40, a giveback day inside a +5.7% week; the HK$78 stop leaves a thick cushion, holding
Down 0.5% this morning at HK$86.55 — Seres' loss warning only flatters BYD's export-and-scale chassis; stop HK$78, holding
Up 2.6% this morning at HK$86.15 — the export story refuels while OEM pricing keeps decoupling from lithium; stop HK$78, holding
Up 2.7% against the battery-chain slide — OEM and cell pricing have decoupled; the export story holds, stop HK$78
Up 1.5%, grinding higher along the 20-day on the export re-rating; stop HK$78, holding
Down 1.7% — normal give-back after an 11% week; the export re-rating stands, stop stays HK$78, holding
Keep the long: the climb structure is intact — first the 50-day (HK$90.3), then the 200-day (HK$98.3). Stop raised to HK$78, a buffer below the 20-day.
Triple confluence — sales inflection, volume breakout, repairing MAs — keep the long. First target the 50-day (HK$90.6), then the 200-day (HK$98.4). A break of HK$76 falsifies the bounce — exit.
Triple confluence: a sales inflection, a volume breakout, and repairing moving averages. First target the 50-day (HK$91.6), then the 200-day (HK$98.6). Back below HK$76 falsifies the bounce — exit without debate.
High-volume reversal + HK oversold-repair window. Hold as long as HK$74 holds on retests; exit below HK$70 (under the swing low).