Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-02LongHK$78.3 → open → HK$93.95+19.99%
Brief History (14 issues)
Continue holding (maintaining long). The technical setup is at its most favorable point in this advance: bullish short-term alignment, strong momentum (+28.9% on the month) with RSI at 65.1 still short of overbought, and price challenging the 200-day (HK$96.78) that decides the intermediate trend. The HK$86 stop sits at the lower edge of overlapping 20-/50-day support (HK$86–87) with roughly one ATR of buffer; a break there voids the short-term structure. The HK$104 target sits above the 200-day as the first objective once the long-term average is reclaimed, implying about 10.7% upside — well below the 32.4% analyst consensus, deliberately conservative. Fundamentals add support: vertical-integration cost advantage plus overseas expansion give real-cash-flow names relative appeal while the memory and optics narratives are impaired.
The +50% QoQ per-unit profit surprise isn't fully priced, and the trend structure above the 50-day is intact; with the interim report not due until late August, pullbacks before then are position-management questions, not directional ones
Existing long stays on: the export narrative plus a reclaimed double-average base. Add on HK$85-87.5 dips, stop HK$81.5 (below the 20-day), targeting the 200-day/HK$100 zone
Sell-side momentum, the Q2 inflection setup and a +6.1% weekly trend — with +12.9% booked since inclusion, this position has earned the right to wait for August's answer
Down 2.8% this morning at HK$88.40, a giveback day inside a +5.7% week; the HK$78 stop leaves a thick cushion, holding
Down 0.5% this morning at HK$86.55 — Seres' loss warning only flatters BYD's export-and-scale chassis; stop HK$78, holding
Up 2.6% this morning at HK$86.15 — the export story refuels while OEM pricing keeps decoupling from lithium; stop HK$78, holding
Up 2.7% against the battery-chain slide — OEM and cell pricing have decoupled; the export story holds, stop HK$78
Up 1.5%, grinding higher along the 20-day on the export re-rating; stop HK$78, holding
Down 1.7% — normal give-back after an 11% week; the export re-rating stands, stop stays HK$78, holding
Keep the long: the climb structure is intact — first the 50-day (HK$90.3), then the 200-day (HK$98.3). Stop raised to HK$78, a buffer below the 20-day.
Triple confluence — sales inflection, volume breakout, repairing MAs — keep the long. First target the 50-day (HK$90.6), then the 200-day (HK$98.4). A break of HK$76 falsifies the bounce — exit.
Triple confluence: a sales inflection, a volume breakout, and repairing moving averages. First target the 50-day (HK$91.6), then the 200-day (HK$98.6). Back below HK$76 falsifies the bounce — exit without debate.
High-volume reversal + HK oversold-repair window. Hold as long as HK$74 holds on retests; exit below HK$70 (under the swing low).