Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-22
- 2026-07-04LongHK$30.72 → open → HK$34.46+12.17%
Brief History (22 issues)
Off 4.06% to HK$34.46 as gold's pullback hit the miners, but still riding the 20-day at 33.5 after an 18.7% monthly run; all 8 covering analysts rate it a buy with 48.6% upside. The gold-plus-copper engine is intact — staying long, exit only on a break of 33.5.
A mild -1.39% giveback to HK$35.42 alongside gold, still above every moving average after a 22% monthly run with a healthy RSI of 59.2. A major bank lifted its H-share target to HK$61 and all 8 covering analysts rate it a buy with 44.6% upside—the gold bull thesis is intact, staying long.
Position maintained. The decline came from macro rate expectations rather than company fundamentals: 68% profit growth, 14.3x earnings, and eight analysts unanimously at strong buy with 42.7% of upside show no operational deterioration. Technically it still holds every moving average, and a 1.3 ATR drop is a normal correction. The line that matters is the 200-day at HK$35.26, just 0.3% underfoot; add in HK$33.5-35.3 with a stop at HK$32.5 below the 20-day, target HK$42. The risk to acknowledge is today's CPI — a hot print would reinforce hike expectations and pressure gold and the miners again, which is exactly why this is not the moment to size up fully.
Record gold, an imminent CPI print, and a 15x multiple against 35.9% of unanimous consensus upside give the long three supports — the position stays. The freshly reclaimed 200-day at HK$35.27 is the ideal add, with the stop below the 20-day at HK$33.13. The HK$42 target sits between spot and the 52-week high, leaving room to digest the overbought condition. RSI at 70.3 suggests the pace may slow, but 26.4% of headroom says the trend is not finished.
Up 3.12% as gold hit a seven-week high, with RSI firm at 69.8 after a 22.8% month; at 14.7x against 72.2% EPS growth and a HK$50.50 target implying 38.7% upside, weak payrolls lifting cut expectations is a direct tailwind. Maintaining the long.
Essentially flat at -0.11% with RSI firm at 66.0 after a 19.0% month; at 14.2x against 72.2% EPS growth and a HK$50.50 target implying 43.2% upside, gold is a natural hedge as risk aversion returns. Maintaining the long.
Up 6.4% with surging gold, ~43% consensus upside — hold. Gold and copper both benefit from haven demand and rate-cut expectations.
Up 2.24% against a weak tape with RSI at 60.8; at 13.6x against 72.2% EPS growth and a HK$50.50 target implying 49.3% upside. Maintaining the long.
RSI at 58.0 above the 20- and 50-day; gold eased on de-escalation but remains elevated, and consensus targets imply 32% upside. Maintaining the long.
Down 0.49% with a neutral RSI of 54.6, holding above the 20-day. Gold and copper prices underpin resource names; 12 analysts target HK$50.95 for 57.8% upside at a very strong 1.04 rating — continue holding
Position: +0.3% after a +10.8% week — gold at $4,119 and copper near record territory powering a twin-metal engine at 12.7x earnings, hold
Existing long stays on: commodity prices and earnings drive in tandem while the chart just reclaimed the 20-day. Add through HK$32.1 (SMA50), stop HK$28.9 (one ATR below the 20-day), target the 200-day at HK$35.2
Friday -4.8% to HK$29.38 — day two of the gold-copper recovery stress test. A fresh stop drawn at HK$27.5: hold it and we stay long, lose it and we leave.
Down 4.1% this morning at HK$29.60 as gold-copper followed the precious-metals rout — the repair rally's first stress test; holding
Up 0.1% this morning at HK$30.24, consolidating high in the gold-copper repair leg; holding
Up 3.3% this morning at HK$30.50 — stage three of the gold-copper repair flips the position into the green; holding
Up 2.0% to the HK$30 round number, day two of the gold-copper repair with the drawdown narrowed to ~-1% — holding
Up 1.4% in repair mode — gold steadied and copper carries the case; safe distance to the HK$28 stop restored, holding
Down 2.2% as the rate trade hit gold; copper is carrying the gold-copper thesis — a break of HK$28 means a discipline exit
-1.1%, long -2.9%; the gold-copper case stands, one step under the 20-day — watching
Gold-copper -3.3%, long -1.8%; EPS +72% at 12.2x, held retest, hold
A +9% volume bounce: gold-copper double play with EPS +72% at 12.4x — not expensive