Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (5 issues)
Down 4.16% with RSI at 31.0, yet 24% below the 20-day and 28% below the 50-day. Semiconductor equipment is directly exposed to memory capex cuts — sidelines
Up 3.3% with the chip rebound, reclaiming the 50-day and breaking the short thesis — covered for a small gain; don't fight semi sentiment
-1.2%, short +3.7%; the 87x distribution continues — stay short
Chip-equipment -3.3%, short +2.5%; pulling back after a 142% year at 87x, hold short
Semi equipment -18.7% in a day after +148% YTD; distribution pattern — stand aside