Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-02LongHK$430.2 → open → HK$459.2+6.74%
Brief History (14 issues)
Continue holding (maintaining long). Price has just reclaimed the 20- and 50-day, stabilizing a previously weak structure, and RSI at 52.2 is neutral — neither chasing strength nor relying on an oversold bounce. The HK$435 stop sits about one ATR (HK$17) below the 50-day (HK$448.86) while staying above the HK$411 52-week low, marking structural failure. The HK$495 target lies between spot and the 200-day (HK$541.79) for 7.8% upside — the first resistance band of a recovery, deliberately short of the HK$689 consensus because the long-term downtrend has not yet reversed. Relative to the AI hardware positions, Tencent's cash flow does not depend on a capex narrative, making it the defensive allocation in this book.
Panics built on third-party data usually retrace half before the earnings verdict; the HK$420 shelf plus the +11% profit divergence underwrites the hold, with a clean stop below the base
Existing long stays on: the double-average base holds, southbound flows returned, and earnings expectations are steady. Add on dips to HK$455-470, exit below HK$448 (under both averages), first target the HK$500 range top
The position still sits on a cushion from the 7/4 entry and sector shrapnel hasn't touched fundamentals; but with the stop this close we neither add nor hope — Monday's tape gets to speak for itself
Down 2.5% this morning at HK$472.00 in the US risk-off echo, 2.5% above the HK$460 stop — the raised stop reports for duty; a break means exit
Up 0.8% this morning at HK$478.00, the +3.6% week putting 6% between price and stop — last week's line-hugging agony bought this week's calm; stop raised to HK$460, holding
Down 0.3% this morning at HK$456.20, 1.4% above the HK$450 stop — still the same exam question: is the trend alive; above the line, holding
Holding (~+7%): sector-beta drawdowns don't justify a discretionary exit, and the stop won't be lowered because 'it's unfair' — discipline earns its keep exactly when tested. With the 50-day and the stop coinciding, a break is a double signal.
Down 0.8%, the first give-back after eight green days — normal breathing on a soft-tech day; stop stays HK$450, holding
Holding (~+10.7% open gain): trend, flows and narrative still resonate. Stop raised to HK$450 to lock in most of the gain, with the next raise beyond HK$500.
Keep the long: a flagpole move with southbound support and dense AI catalysts — target raised to HK$510. Stop up to HK$445 (above the 20-day), locking most of the gain. After seven green days, a pullback is an add, not an exit.
A two-MA breakout, a strengthening weekly, and base-buying support — keep the long. Target the HK$500 round number; a break of HK$430 flags a false breakout. Double-digit growth at 16.6x keeps the odds favorable.
Five percent above the 52-week low, inside a year-long base, with the weekly turning up — a low-risk probe: the cost of being wrong below HK$405 is small, and the room above the 50-day (HK$455) is ample.
15.4x P/E at the valuation floor; 54 analysts imply +61%. Wait for HK beta to stabilize