Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-09
- 2026-07-02LongHK$94.5 → closed HK$94.12026-07-04-0.42%
- 2026-07-08LongHK$99.6 → open → HK$114+14.46%
Brief History (14 issues)
Continue holding (maintaining long). The 50-day (HK$112.34) has just been reclaimed, the short-term structure is improving, monthly momentum (+24.3%) exceeds Tencent's, and RSI at 55.3 leaves headroom. The HK$105 stop sits about one ATR (HK$4.94) below the 20-day (HK$108.99); a break there would mean the 50-day reclaim failed and the repair is over. The HK$126 target maps to the lower edge of prior congestion for 10.5% upside — far below the 62.3% consensus, because price is still 18% under the 200-day and the long-term trend has not turned, so this targets only the higher-confidence leg of the repair. The closed loop between AI investment and commerce monetization makes it more resilient than pure compute names as the market reprices returns on AI capex.
Position & watchlist: +1.1% — the cloud-up-45% preview already paid once on 7/8, flash-buy losses narrowing faster than expected and Jiang Fan pledging UE breakeven this fiscal year; hold into late-August earnings
Firm after a +6.1% week — the rerating on 40% external cloud growth with AI past 30% of mix advances; hold into late-August earnings
Down 3.68% Friday to HK$112.6. The stop is consolidated at HK$110 (superseding last issue's dual 108/110 wording), leaving a 2.4% cushion with +15% banked since inclusion — break 110 and we hand in the paper; long above the line.
An external pullback (US chips) doesn't overrule the internal case (cloud + AI re-rating); a position stopped above cost can afford to wait for the exam to reopen, with four days of WAIC as potential narrative resupply.
The strongest momentum in the book earns the tightest trailing stop; three failed attempts at the 50-day would mean fading thrust, at which point protecting gains outranks chasing targets.
Low-volume consolidation after a surge is a bullish shape, counter-tape strength is valuable, and the stop already sits above cost — this is the textbook let-it-run setup, not a take-profit one.
Holding (~+7%): relative strength through a sector storm is the highest-grade reason to stay. Stop holds at HK$105, rising to HK$110 on a 50-day break.
Holding (~+9% in three days): strength independent of the sector confirms the re-rating isn't done. Stop raised from HK$100 to HK$105 to bank half the gain, with the next raise past the 50-day (HK$117.50).
The position opened 7/8 validated itself the very next day: earnings previews, H200 access and bank re-ratings resonating at once. Stop raised to HK$100 (under the 20-day) to let profits run, with the next raise on a break of the 50-day (HK$118).
Shift from sidelines to a lean-bullish entry: a +4% volume day, a strengthening week, and the sector repair align — the right-side signal a month in waiting. Confirming above the 20-day (HK$101.4) validates the double bottom, targeting HK$112 (under the 50-day); back below HK$92 flags a false start — take the loss.
Relative weakness hasn't lifted; anything short of the 20-day is a dead-cat bounce. A break of the HK$88.65 low triggers fresh technical selling — no left-side heroics on a trade.
Relative weakness hasn't lifted; anything short of the 20-day is a dead-cat bounce. A break of the HK$88.65 low triggers fresh technical selling — no left-side heroics on a trade.
RSI 29.8 oversold at 15.6x — the left-side zone after a double de-rate of cloud and commerce