Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-10
- 2026-07-09Long$388.69 → open → $417.82+7.49%
Brief History (19 issues)
Up 0.43% to 417.82, grinding higher above all major moving averages with RSI at 59 leaving room, +5.6% on the month and well off the 52-week high of 495; 55 analysts see 26.7% upside to $529. The custom-silicon AI thesis is intact — stay long.
Flat on the day but that's resilience: RSI 58 above every moving average and +5.7% on the month; 55 analysts' $529 target implies 27.3% upside with 32% revenue growth underwriting the premium — staying long
Off 1.50% in a modest pullback with RSI at a healthy 58.3, above every average and 13.0% over the 200-day; custom ASICs remain a structural winner as cloud buyers chase cost efficiency, and 55 analysts leave 27.2% of upside — position maintained.
Down 1.25% with the chip complex, yet RSI 61.8 stays healthy above every moving average after a 9.9% week; the custom-ASIC story is untouched by the circular-financing dispute — position maintained.
Maintaining the long but stepping down from bullish to lean bullish — on position, not logic. RSI(7) at 78.5 has reached near-extreme levels after three straight gains totaling 8.3%, borrowing some near-term room. The entry zone rises from $400–414 to $408–420, the stop lifts from $383 to $390 just below the 50-day at $395.04, and the target holds at $470. The business logic was further validated today: with memory and general-purpose GPUs each under pressure, custom ASIC is the only direction that benefits from both anxieties at once.
Maintaining the long and the bullish stance. Today validated yesterday's read: the reclaim of the 50-day at $394.92 held, and it finished green on a day the sector struggled. Entry at $400–414 above the 50-day, stop at $383 structurally between the 50-day and the 200-day at $367.20, and a $470 target short of the $495 high. There is a second layer to the logic: today's doubt about returns on AI capex sharpens hyperscalers' incentive to cut costs with custom ASICs — the same doubt that is a risk for Nvidia is an order book for Broadcom.
A hold above the SMA20 ($389) keeps the position; stop at $388 (about one ATR below), target $460 en route to the $495 prior high. The Sep 2 report is the key catalyst — expect range-bound trade until then.
Maintaining the long and upgrading to bullish. Reclaiming the 50-day at $394.87 on volume is the key technical confirmation, and a $398–412 pullback that holds validates the breakout. Stop at $383, structurally between the 50-day and the 200-day at $366.52, with a target of $470 short of the $495 high. Q3 AI revenue guidance of $16B at over 200% growth is not yet fully in the price — 69.6x isn't absurd against that trajectory.
AI semiconductor revenue grew 143% with management guiding Q3 to $16B at over 200% growth, and Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight. The stock's 0.76% gain lagged the tape, leaving order visibility unpriced; maintaining the long.
Down just 0.6% on a day semis collapsed, far more resilient than the memory chain. Custom ASIC and networking tie it to hyperscaler in-house silicon; 55 analysts target $528.60 for 38.8% upside — continue holding
Position: -1.1%, hovering under the 50-day with 53 analysts seeing +35% — the AI ASIC thesis is intact, hold
Consolidating 5.6% lower under the 50-day, yet 53 analysts still see 37% upside — the custom-AI-silicon thesis absorbs the dip, hold
Down 0.97% to $370.8 and -6.9% on the week — all sector beta, nothing custom-silicon specific. 3.6% above the $358 stop; stay long above the line.
Down 5.0% to $374.45 in the sector sweep, 4.4% above the $358 stop — the custom-silicon story is fine, the sector beta isn't; above the line, holding
Up 1.3% to $394.28 while memory burned — custom silicon sits on the arms-dealer side with NVIDIA; stop $358, holding
Down 4.0% to $384.05 on the sector hit; the custom-silicon story is intact — stop now set at $358 under the 200-day, holding
Down 0.3%, consolidating at $400 with the position +2.9% in three days; the Apple deal and META's custom-chip wave are both tailwinds — holding
Up 3.2% through $400 a day after entry; the Apple deal's repricing has only started — past the 50-day ($406), $440 is next
New long: the 200-day survived a month-long test, the Apple deal is a fundamentals-changing catalyst rather than a sentiment blip, and doubled WSB attention supplies follow-through flow. Stop $358 (under the 200-day); first target the $440 prior-high zone beyond a reclaimed 50-day.