Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (6 issues)
Position call: stay long. The selloff hit positioning, not the thesis — a beat-and-raise plus five same-day target hikes means nothing was falsified; the -8% was profit-taking on +74% YTD gains plus a margin-guide sentiment tax. Technically the close held above the 20-day ($301.33); stop anchored at $299 (exit on a break of both the 20-day and the $300 round number, roughly 0.8 ATR below — defined risk). The $305–$325 pullback zone is for adds, not chasing. Upside sequence: reclaim the 50-day ($339), then the early-August congestion at $380, with the $414 consensus target as the outer marker. ADX 18.5 says range-bound regime — no leverage, honor the stop.
Rallied 8.24% on its own record quarter plus the Lumentum-ignited optics surge, reclaiming the 50-day on 1.7x volume; RSI 57 leaves headroom and 28 analysts see 11.4% upside in the fiber-optic supercycle — worth a long, though the 170x P/E argues against sizing up
Up 13.44% and 37.4% for the week as the optics theme reignited, with RSI at 63.6 — but at 181x with consensus targets just 4.2% above spot, there is no room to chase. Sidelines.
Up 12.35% and 25.8% for the week on the optics theme, but still below the 50-day at $344.93 and at 154.6x with no margin of safety; sidelines.
Down 10.31% in Corning's wake with RSI at 31.3. Price broke 22% below the 20-day and 31% below the 50-day as the optics narrative reprices — sidelines
Down 5.3% to $307.39 as optics rode the semis slide, 30% off the high — the order story stands, the beta stings; sidelines