Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-08-05
- 2026-07-02Short$85.69 → closed $86.462026-07-07-0.90%
- 2026-08-04Long$85.76 → open → $106.29+23.94%
Brief History (13 issues)
A 1.3% cool-off after the 19% surge, with RSI(7) still hot at 74. The $100B+ backlog stands and 42 analysts see 34% upside; SMA200 near $93 is the trend floor. Holding, not adding—exit talk starts below 93.
Position review: yesterday's signal was long, and the call is to KEEP HOLDING. The 19.3% move is a substantive re-rating driven by the earnings beat, the $104B backlog, and the Meta/Anthropic contracts — 2.8x volume reclaimed every moving average, RSI(14) at 65 is not yet extreme, the $142.29 consensus target leaves 32% of headroom, and with ADX at just 18.6 the trend is early; day one of a landed catalyst is no time to jump off. That said, RSI(7) at 76.4 and price stretched 34% above the 20-day argue against chasing: holders stay put, fresh money waits for a retest of the $100–106 gap rim, and a break below the 200-day at $93.2 would invalidate the earnings gap and force an exit. Upside markers sit at $128 (~+2.4 ATR) then $142.
Position maintained: the print delivered growth and the market voted with a 14% after-hours move. But entry discipline has to follow the level — real confirmation is holding the 200-day at $93.31, and only above that does $93-98 become low-risk. Chasing a gap-up open means betting on overnight sentiment with an 8.2% ATR. Stop at $78, below the 20-day at $78.91; a return there voids the earnings move entirely. The $120 target sits conservatively between the 52-week high of $153.20 and the $138.51 consensus.
Down 2.74% with RSI at 53.3, above the 20-day at $78.39 but still under the 50-day at $91.76; Q2 lands after today's close with options pricing a 14.8% move — no directional change into the print, position maintained.
Up 6.26% against the tape and 17.7% for the week with RSI neutral at 55.4, still below the twin barrier of the 50-day at $92.13 and 200-day at $93.65, with 52.6% consensus upside. Maintaining the long.
Down 5.07% on doubts over returns from AI capex, though the week is still up 24.9% with RSI neutral at 51.7. It failed to clear the 50-day at $92.40 and 200-day at $93.83. Maintaining the long, but watching closely.
An AI-cloud compute play with ~53% consensus upside but heavy volatility — hold. Holds $85 support; a break flips it to sidelines.
Up 7.16% and 33.2% for the week with RSI at 56.9, closing on the twin barrier of the 50-day at $93.13 and 200-day at $94.35. Yesterday's entry thesis is playing out; maintaining the long.
A 19.5% high-volume day reclaimed the 20-day at $77.86; a pullback into $79–84 that holds confirms the breakout. Stop at $74, structurally between the 20-day and the $60.55 low, targeting $97 just above the 50-day ($93.44) and 200-day ($94.58) resistance cluster. With an ATR of $8.19, size small — this is a name to hold at wager scale, not allocation scale.
Up 0.41% to $73.21, the eye of the neocloud storm. Meta flipping from anchor customer to competitor guts the $99B backlog's credibility, with $35B of debt and $536M quarterly interest on top. The financing structure is the whole debate — watching, not playing.
Down 5.5% to $72.91, -33% on the month: biggest customer Meta is morphing into a competitor and Mizuho cut to $100 — of all the neoclouds, its adversary is the most clearly named; sidelines
The +5.8% bounce flips the short to -0.9%; neocloud competition persists, cover above $90
Broken sector thesis + leverage + all MAs lost: bounces are for selling, not buying. Holders can use $95 (the breakdown level) as the rally-exit reference.