Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (2 issues)
Yesterday's call was don't chase the earnings gap, and today's knife confirmed it: a 2.9x-volume cut through both the 20- and 50-day, and day one of a gap-down is never for catching. RSI(7) at 36.2 isn't extreme yet; real support sits at the $110 round number stacked with the one-ATR zone near $109. Only a volume-contraction stabilization makes $108-112 worth watching, with a $104 stop (about two ATRs below) and a bounce target at $118-120—the gap's upper edge and 50-day supply zone. Until volume compresses and the gap stabilizes, stay flat.
The snapshot close of $123.88 predates the earnings reaction: shares fell as much as 4.6% after hours, then clawed most of it back premarket on 8/13 — the real post-earnings verdict needs a regular session with volume behind it. The bull case (AI orders up 4.5x) and the bear case (softer margin guidance) net out, RSI7 at 70.6 runs hot, and the stock sits just 5.2% below its 52-week high — chasing here offers poor odds while shorting fights the yearly trend, so discipline says flat. If a pullback into the $116-$118 support band (triple confluence of the 20-day SMA, 50-day SMA, and after-hours low) finds buyers, a long setup can be reassessed with a stop at $112 (roughly one ATR of 3.86 below the 20-day SMA) targeting the 52-week high at $130.37.