Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-08-12
- 2026-08-11Long$194.91 → open → $197.7+1.43%
Brief History (5 issues)
Up 0.56% to 197.7, +4.6% on the week with RSI at 62 above all three moving averages and the +29.9% YTD energy tailwind still blowing; 28 analysts see 10% upside plus a 3.55% dividend underneath. Trend and cash flow both working — stay long.
Barely moved at -0.03%: RSI 61 above all three moving averages with a +2.8% week and the +29.2% YTD energy tailwind still blowing; 28 analysts see 10.6% upside on top of a 3.5% dividend cushion — staying long
Position maintained. The thesis is unchanged: while Hormuz stays deadlocked, upstream crude and downstream cracks both work in its favor, and a 2.3% ATR keeps the carrying cost of that exposure low. Add in $190-194 near the 20-day at $190.59, stop at $187 roughly 2 ATR below, target $214 at the 52-week high. The risk must be stated symmetrically: this premium rests on a geopolitical stalemate, and a genuine diplomatic breakthrough would deflate crude and cracks together — there is precedent for an 11% drop in three sessions. That is the reason to hold it, and equally the reason not to hold it at full size.
A 1.69x-volume break above every moving average with RSI at 59.4 still leaving headroom makes this the cleanest technical-fundamental alignment in this issue. Entry runs from the 20-day at $189.84 up to spot, with the stop below the 50-day at $183.08 — a break there means the crude-premium thesis has unwound. Target is the 52-week high at $214.71. Geopolitical deadlock is directionally unpredictable, but an 18.7x multiple caps the downside even if oil retreats.
Energy-wide oversold (RSI 27.6); trade the crude, not the stock