Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-29
- 2026-07-24Long$317.69 → open → $333.71+5.04%
Brief History (5 issues)
Continue holding (maintaining long). The core rationale is relative strength: closing up 2.19% and defending the 200-day ($324.75) on a day of systematic sector selling shows money classifies it as the defensive asset within the AI theme rather than a risk exposure. The $316 stop sits about 0.75 ATR ($11.73) below the 200-day — losing the long-term average would invalidate the relative-strength thesis, making it a clean structural exit. The $362 target matches the 50-day ($361.84), the prevailing short-term resistance, for 8.5% upside versus the 28.4% consensus, because the short-term averages have not yet turned and this trades only the leg back to the 50-day. Risk: tonight's Microsoft and Meta capex guidance could deliver a second sentiment shock to the sector; watch whether the 200-day holds.
A panic flush with fundamentals intact: RSI 31, the $305 March shelf, and +36% consensus upside make the odds acceptable. The risk is capex fear bleeding into the 7/29 MSFT/META earnings night — hence scaling in rather than full size, stop below the shelf
Same as GOOG: earnings tonight, and cloud growth plus Gemini monetization are the only two questions — sidelines until answered
Down 4.4% to $354.46 on Bloomberg's Gemini 3.5 Pro delay scoop — in the AI arms race, late is bearish; the 200-day waits below the $350 round number, sidelines
Up 3.2% to $370.92 — another beneficiary of money leaving hardware rubble for platform certainty; sidelines