Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-29
- 2026-07-24Long$317.69 → open → $346.36+9.02%
Brief History (14 issues)
Up 0.82%, arresting a 4% weekly drawdown right at the 20-day (346.45) with the 200-day near 331 intact as the floor; RSI at 47 has fully reset, and 71 analysts still see 23.1% upside to $426. Capex noise doesn't touch the core franchise — stay long.
Down 0.08%, stabilizing after a brutal -10.4% week on Gemini 4 delay chatter and a $25B debt raise to fund AI capex; RSI at 45.7 has reset, shares hold above the 200-day, and 72 analysts see 24.7% upside at just 17x earnings — staying long
Down 3.84% as 2026 capex guidance of $195-205B pushed free cash flow negative for the first time, breaking the 20- and 50-day; at 17.3x with 72 analysts seeing 24.6% upside, the market is repricing spending rather than demand — position maintained.
Up 0.91% to reclaim the 50-day at $355.85 with RSI at 52.2 and an 18.0x multiple, the cheapest in mega-cap tech; 72 analysts see $428.42, 19.8% above spot — position maintained.
Down 0.96% through the 50-day at $356.51 with RSI back to neutral at 50.7 — but at 17.8x against 112% EPS growth it remains the cheapest of the giants, with 21.0% consensus upside. Maintaining the long.
Down 1.29% and pinned right at the 50-day of $357.20 with RSI back to neutral at 52.4; at 18.0x against 112% EPS growth it remains the cheapest of the giants. Maintaining the long.
Down 4% with AI-sector swings but still 10% above the SMA200, ~18% consensus upside — hold. Search, cloud, and Gemini keep the base solid.
Up 1.11% above every moving average with a healthy RSI of 62.6 and just 7.6% below the $408.61 high; the Gemini cloud monetization story is unchanged. Maintaining the long.
A pullback to the 50-day at $358.43 is the cleanest entry window, with a stop below the 20-day at $348.41 and a target of $405 just under the $408.61 high. RSI at 61 says sentiment has not yet peaked, giving better risk/reward than MSFT despite a similar move.
Continue holding (maintaining long). The core rationale is relative strength: closing up 2.19% and defending the 200-day ($324.75) on a day of systematic sector selling shows money classifies it as the defensive asset within the AI theme rather than a risk exposure. The $316 stop sits about 0.75 ATR ($11.73) below the 200-day — losing the long-term average would invalidate the relative-strength thesis, making it a clean structural exit. The $362 target matches the 50-day ($361.84), the prevailing short-term resistance, for 8.5% upside versus the 28.4% consensus, because the short-term averages have not yet turned and this trades only the leg back to the 50-day. Risk: tonight's Microsoft and Meta capex guidance could deliver a second sentiment shock to the sector; watch whether the 200-day holds.
A panic flush with fundamentals intact: RSI 31, the $305 March shelf, and +36% consensus upside make the odds acceptable. The risk is capex fear bleeding into the 7/29 MSFT/META earnings night — hence scaling in rather than full size, stop below the shelf
Same as GOOG: earnings tonight, and cloud growth plus Gemini monetization are the only two questions — sidelines until answered
Down 4.4% to $354.46 on Bloomberg's Gemini 3.5 Pro delay scoop — in the AI arms race, late is bearish; the 200-day waits below the $350 round number, sidelines
Up 3.2% to $370.92 — another beneficiary of money leaving hardware rubble for platform certainty; sidelines