Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/2 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-10
- 2026-07-02Long$612.91 → closed $582.92026-07-04-4.90%
- 2026-07-07Long$600.29 → closed $587.942026-08-05-2.06%
Brief History (18 issues)
Down 3.38% below every moving average and off 12.5% for the month as AI capex anxiety weighs; WSB mentions heated up from 46 to 81 in 24 hours. 68 analysts see 28.9% upside, but with RSI a soft 43.9, waiting for stabilization.
Up 0.48% with RSI at 48.6, still below the 20-day at $609.18 and the 200-day at $630.60; a 22.4x multiple against a $747.60 target from 69 analysts implies 25.7% upside, but the technicals have not turned.
It fell 0.39% while the Nasdaq gained 2.59%, the only megacap tech name down on the day, and remains below the 20-, 50- and 200-day with RSI neutral at 46.5. The bounce has run out of momentum. Closing the position; revisit on a reclaim of the 50-day at $601.50.
RSI at 47 leaves room to run, but with price under all three moving averages this is still a mean-reversion trade. Enter on a $570–585 pullback, stop at $548 between the prior low and the 52-week low, and target the 200-day near $633.90. Until the 50-day at $601.89 is reclaimed, don't treat this as a trend position.
Reports tonight and must justify $125–145bn of capex. RSI 43.4 is weak and price sits ~7% below the 200-day; 71 analysts target $822.55 for 38.6% upside — hold, but this is the largest event risk in the book
Position: down 10.5% on the week in GOOGL's capex contagion, with the 7/29 print as the exam — the capex language sets the direction; hold without adding, trim below $580
Up 12.4% in a month and firm above the 50-day with an $823 consensus (+28%) — the ads-plus-AI engine keeps the long running
Down 2.79% to $646, a mere 0.9% above the $640 stop — break it and we're out, no second looks, no sentiment. Long until then.
Down 2.5% to $664.54 in routine AI-unwind giveback; the +11.9% month cushions it, stop stays $640, holding
Up 3.1% to $681.31 — a platform winner on hardware-collapse day; the re-rating is +17.5% on the month, stop raised to $640, holding
Down 1.9% to $656.73 — a low-volume breather inside the re-rating; RSI 63 isn't stretched, stop stays $620, holding
Holding: narrative upgrade, dual-average breakout and the YTD flip give triple confirmation. Stop raised from $590 to $620 (under the gap's lower rim) to lock the re-rating gain; a gap-fill below $620 before late-July earnings would mean the market isn't paying for the new story.
Up 4.7% on a volume breakout with WSB mentions 4x (57→240); the AI-cloud story plus a confirmed 50-day retest — gains widening, holding
Down 2.0% to a textbook 50-day retest ($601); the AI cloud story stands — exit talk starts below $590
+2.6% through the 50-day, long +2.5%; the AI-cloud story was immune on chip-rout day
+3% back over $600; 21.8x nearing the 50-day, the AI-cloud story warms
Announced its AI-cloud entry and fell 4.9% — the capex fear contagion jumped from Oracle to its own tape
Don't chase a volume breakout; wait for the 50-day retest to confirm support. $565 is the gap's lower edge; first target the 200-day zone.