Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (14 issues)
Reports tonight, with Azure growth and $190bn of capex the deciding variables. Price holds the 20-day but sits ~10% under the 200-day; 64 analysts target $554.77 for 41% upside — hold into the print
Position: earnings land 7/29, same day as the FOMC, with GOOGL's capex panic as the cautionary tale — hold the $381 position without adding; +46% consensus upside is the backstop
A mild +3.9% weekly repair with 64 analysts seeing 40% upside — hold the long; below $390 is the add zone
Off 1.82% to $393.82, slipping below $400 right after our 7/16 entry at $401.1. Software-platform-over-hardware thesis intact — early days, stay long.
Up 1.4% through $400 to $401.10 — every hardware-collapse day is an ad slot for platform software; +7.1% on the week, holding
Up 2.8% to $395.63 — the beneficiary of enterprise budgets re-sorting toward certainty after IBM's fall; holding
Up 1.5% to $390.99 on a red day — defensive money hid in value software; WSB mentions doubled to #3, holding
Up 0.2%, sideways again — but once META priced compute, the market must eventually re-mark Azure; the value-zone wait has a new reference frame
A tepid +0.3%, but WSB mentions tripled overnight (114→356) — the laggard just got called on; the value-zone patience may be nearing payday
Down 1.4%, camping in the value zone; the 23x laggard thesis needs patience — lost the 20-day again, but no panic above prior lows
+0.5% resilient; the 23x laggard in value territory, long +1.1%, hold
-1%, long -1%; the 23x Mag-7 laggard in a rare value zone, hold
A +7.6% week and counting: the Mag-7 laggard at 23x — a rare drift into value territory
Bouncing after -17% in a month; big tech's YTD laggard at 22.9x — left-side watch