MSFT

Up 1.21% but with RSI at 79.1 and RSI(7) at 87.4 deeply overbought, trading 23.9% above the 50-day; 62 analysts see just 11.5% upside to $564.40 and WSB mentions jumped from 7 to 118 — poor odds for chasing.

Flat at $499.99 with RSI at 78.1 and RSI(7) at 86.1 deeply overbought and consensus upside of just 12.8%; after a 30.2% month the position is extreme. Staying sidelined.

Up 2.54% against the tape to $499.86, but RSI at 78.1 and RSI(7) at 86.1 are deeply overbought with consensus upside of just 12.3%. Closed out yesterday; staying sidelined pending a pullback.

RSI(7) at 83.8 is the most overbought on the board and this isn't a good entry; take profit on the prior position at these highs and step aside, waiting for a pullback to $460-470 before re-entering long, stop at $448. Trend and fundamentals are intact, but no long signal here.

Maintaining the long. Nothing changed in Azure's fundamentals, but the chart shows its first sign of fatigue: the daily gain fell from 4.93% to 1.06%, relative volume from 1.6x to 1.11x, and it advanced just 1.06% while the Nasdaq gained 2.59%. Rising price on shrinking volume plus relative underperformance is the signature of decaying momentum. The stop moves up to $438 above the 200-day at $433.35, the entry zone lifts from yesterday's $440–455 to $455–470, and the target stays $553 at the 52-week high. At RSI(7) 89.4 the only correct action is to hold, not to add.

Chasing at RSI 78 just hands liquidity to whoever bought three days ago. The 200-day at $433 is this reversal's cost basis — a pullback that holds is the real second entry. A break of $425 would mark this as short-covering rather than a trend change.

Reports tonight, with Azure growth and $190bn of capex the deciding variables. Price holds the 20-day but sits ~10% under the 200-day; 64 analysts target $554.77 for 41% upside — hold into the print

Position: earnings land 7/29, same day as the FOMC, with GOOGL's capex panic as the cautionary tale — hold the $381 position without adding; +46% consensus upside is the backstop

A mild +3.9% weekly repair with 64 analysts seeing 40% upside — hold the long; below $390 is the add zone

Off 1.82% to $393.82, slipping below $400 right after our 7/16 entry at $401.1. Software-platform-over-hardware thesis intact — early days, stay long.

Up 1.4% through $400 to $401.10 — every hardware-collapse day is an ad slot for platform software; +7.1% on the week, holding

Up 2.8% to $395.63 — the beneficiary of enterprise budgets re-sorting toward certainty after IBM's fall; holding

Up 1.5% to $390.99 on a red day — defensive money hid in value software; WSB mentions doubled to #3, holding

Up 0.2%, sideways again — but once META priced compute, the market must eventually re-mark Azure; the value-zone wait has a new reference frame

A tepid +0.3%, but WSB mentions tripled overnight (114→356) — the laggard just got called on; the value-zone patience may be nearing payday

Down 1.4%, camping in the value zone; the 23x laggard thesis needs patience — lost the 20-day again, but no panic above prior lows

+0.5% resilient; the 23x laggard in value territory, long +1.1%, hold

-1%, long -1%; the 23x Mag-7 laggard in a rare value zone, hold

A +7.6% week and counting: the Mag-7 laggard at 23x — a rare drift into value territory

Bouncing after -17% in a month; big tech's YTD laggard at 22.9x — left-side watch