Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-24
- 2026-07-22Long$216.92 → closed $169.692026-07-29-21.77%
- 2026-08-13Long$259.2 → open → $255.04-1.60%
Brief History (16 issues)
Off 1.6% after a 24% week; WSB mentions halved (479→233) and only 10.7% is left to the Street's $282 target. The +454% revenue story is intact but the odds are thinning—stay long, trim below $228 (one ATR down) to lock gains.
Momentum is real — earnings plus squeeze on 2.43x volume with RSI-14 at a non-extreme 62 — but after a 34% single-day move the stock sits just 15.7% below its $299.86 52-week high with a $26.48 daily ATR, making a same-day chase poor risk/reward. The reference entry zone is a retest of the gap around $233 (one ATR below the close) up to $247, where Burry added his short; the $218 stop sits about 1.7% below the 50-day SMA ($221.83), a break of which would invalidate the squeeze narrative. Target is the 52-week high zone near $300. The 1.7% after-hours fade hints profit-taking is underway — patience for the retest pays.
Up 4.95% with RSI a neutral 47.5, sitting fractionally 0.2% below the 20-day; 443.9% revenue growth is spectacular, but capex and dilution risk dominate community debate. With 19 analysts at 35.9% upside, wait for the averages to hold.
Down 2.05% with RSI at 44.9, still below the 20-day at $193.67 and 50-day at $222.69; 19 analysts see $262.62, 42.6% above spot, though AI compute names are under broad pressure.
Down 1.01% with RSI neutral at 45.8 after a 6.5% week, still 16% below the 50-day at $223.54; volatility ahead of the 8/12 print is extreme. Sidelines.
Down 13.29% on doubts over AI capex returns and pressure across neoclouds, with RSI neutral at 46.2 yet still 15% below the 50-day at $223.94; volatility ahead of the 8/12 print is extreme. Sidelines.
Up 11.64% on the $1B-plus Reflection AI compute contract and neocloud sympathy, yet still below the 50-day at $224.11 with extreme volatility into the 8/12 print; sidelines.
Down 9.68% through both the 20- and 50-day. Its asset-light partnership model reads to the market as cost of capital exceeding return on capital, with $20–25bn of capex overhead. The market wants evidence, not narrative — close the position
Position: NVIDIA's 9.3% stake and $2B investment, the $1B+ Reflection AI contract, and a $775M GPU-collateralized loan defusing dilution fears — three catalysts behind a +16% week, hold
The Nvidia endorsement upgrades the story's weight class, but the $221/225 average ceiling is unbroken: scale in on a $205-218 retest, stop $188 (under the prior low), add through $225 toward the $270 consensus
Policy (the data-center ban), funding (capex) and positioning (28.6% short) are all moving violently at once — no directional signal survives bookkeeping. Wait for one variable to land first.
Flat, coiling under the 50-day ($220); the AI-cloud upstart needs that reclaim before there's a right-side story
Up 10.9% as the AI-cloud upstart bounced; +149% YTD against a -10% month — a surfboard for the high-beta repair trade
-8.4%, neocloud -24% on the week; even +444% revenue can't stop a de-rate — wait
-1.2%, neocloud -15% week; revenue +444% but below the 20-day, sidelines
The negative is structural (business model questioned), not one-off, and RSI isn't oversold — no rush to catch it. Watch whether $200 holds; next support $180.