Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History1/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-07
- 2026-07-04Long$194.83 → closed $202.812026-07-18+4.10%
Brief History (14 issues)
Up 0.25% — essentially flat on a day semis collapsed, notable relative strength. Still below the 20- and 50-day, though 64 analysts target $314.29 for 59.5% upside — wait for a reclaim of the 50-day
Watchlist: -1.6%, relatively resilient — the Cerebras/AMD alliances don't dent the crown, but next week's hyperscaler capex language is the real direction switch, sidelines
Playing neocloud kingmaker with the 9.3% Nebius stake while its own tape barely moved +2%; 65 analysts see +51% — wait for the dip, don't chase the plateau
The $205 stop broke, so we execute: this long ran from 7/2 with a raised stop, and Kimi K3 plus capex-debt worries are narrative-level headwinds — no re-entry below resistance
Down 2.4% to $207.40, 1.2% above the $205 stop — the arms dealer finally took one head-on; a break means exit, for the relative-strength story only exists above the line
With relative strength confirmed and both averages reclaimed, the old stop is too far away; raising it to $205 locks the floor under this leg's gains — a trend position's stop only ever moves up.
Stray rounds hurt sentiment, not the order book. The stop hugs the 200-day's upper rim and the break-means-exit discipline stands — let $196 make the decision, not the panic.
Holding: the 50-day reclaim completes repair stage two. Stop raised from $188 to $196 (half an ATR under the 20-day); target extends to $235 beyond the $220 gap-fill.
Holding: lagging on a rotation day is no exit signal — the 200-day structure and the two falsified bear cases stand. Stop stays $188; three straight days of sector underperformance would trigger a rethink.
Holding: five closes above the 200-day plus two falsified bear cases raise the odds of trend repair. Stop at $188 (a half-ATR buffer under the 200-day), to be raised on a break of $210.
Keep the long: the bullseye name was the most resilient, with a four-day 200-day hold, bottom-percentile valuation, and doubled mention flow. Clearing the 20-day ($202) opens the repair; below $182, take the loss.
Repeated 200-day confirmation, cheapest multiple in a year, and a chip-rebound tailwind — keep the long. A break of the 50-day ($210) opens upside; a break of $178 (one ATR below the 200-day) signals reversal — take the loss.
First 200-day retest, sector-leading relative strength, and the cheapest multiple in a year — the best odds on the board amid the panic. A break of $178 (one ATR below the 200-day) upgrades panic to trend reversal; take the loss and walk.
Range trade: accumulate at the 200-day floor, trim at the 50-day ceiling. A break of $185 means the AI-hardware rotation turned into outflow — step aside first.