Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-02Long$125.73 → closed $123.532026-07-29-1.75%
Brief History (14 issues)
Down 6.08% after Cleveland Research flagged soft commercial spending. At 139x earnings with the August 3 print ahead and price ~20% below the 200-day, uncertainty is high — close ahead of earnings
Position & watchlist: -1.0%, a -7.3% week grinding at the $125 line with +54% consensus upside — hold, revisit below $115
A +7.3% week reclaimed the 50-day; watchlist and position channels align — the long holds unless $125 gives way
Slipped 1.53% to $132.4 but flat on the week — resilient by AI-complex standards. The $122 stop leaves a fat 7.9% cushion. Stay long.
Up 0.5% to $134.44 against the tape — a +5.3% week is a rare green number inside the AI chain; $122 stop, holding
Flat at $133.76, a third straight day steady above the stop zone; $122 discipline unchanged, holding
Up 2.6% to $130.04, bouncing off the stop zone; $122 discipline unchanged — a bounce is parole, not acquittal
Down 1.7%, a third soft day hugging the 20-day ($124.90); lagging a tech rally is a bad tell, and the $122 stop is one step away — a break means gone
Down 2.4% to the 20-day's rim ($125); weakness on a tech-rally day warrants attention — the $122 stop is bodyguard-close
Down 1.6% but holding above the 20-day ($125) with gains banked; stop $122 locks profit, holding
Keep the long: the 50-day break, safe-harbor status, and weekly momentum target the $150 gap. Raise the stop to $122 (below the 20-day) to protect part of the gain.
Catalyst momentum persists — keep the long. A break of the 50-day ($134.2) opens the $150 gap. But chasing a 14% week has poor odds; add on a 20-day retest. A break of $118 signals momentum exhaustion.
Dense catalysts plus short covering are the tailwind, but chasing a 16% week has terrible odds. A held retest of the 20-day confirms momentum; through the 50-day ($134.6), the target is the $150 gap zone.
Oversold + contract catalyst + $120 reclaimed: the bounce structure works. Take profits at the 50-day ($135) if volume doesn't follow.