Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-02Long$125.73 → closed $123.532026-07-29-1.75%
- 2026-08-04Long$125.65 → open → $179.01+42.47%
Brief History (23 issues)
Up 4.66% to 179.01, RSI at 72.9 now overbought after a 44.8% monthly run, stretched nearly 25% above the 20-day (143.45); 35 analysts still see 11.2% upside. Momentum is alive but this leg came on thin volume (RVOL 0.58) — stay long with a trailing stop ready.
Cooling 2.23% after a +34.4% month — RSI at 69.7 near overbought is just the metabolism of momentum; well above the 20-day at 141 and 50-day at 134, with 35 analysts still seeing 16.4% upside, staying long with a tight eye on drawdown
Position maintained. Revenue growth of 93% and 157% net retention support this advance, and with 15.7% still to the 52-week high the trend has room. But RSI(7) at 81.3 is no place to size up: the cleaner add is a 1-2 ATR pullback into $158-166, with a stop at $157 roughly 2 ATR below — a break there ends this momentum leg. The $200 target sits between the $198.54 consensus and the prior high. Stay clear-eyed: today's price rests on raised expectations rather than new contracts, and when the upgrade cadence pauses, 149x will find gravity on its own.
A 93% growth rate and a Rule of 40 of 155 give no reason to abandon the trend — the long stays. But a 38.3% week, a price 31.5% above the 50-day and only 12.8% of consensus headroom together make fresh entries here a poor bet. The stop moves up to $155, roughly giving back the week, with the 52-week high at $207.52 as target. This is a hold-but-do-not-add position.
Maintaining the long, but the entry zone must move up and chasing is explicitly ruled out. The fundamentals are flawless: 157% net retention and a 63% free cash flow margin are hard measures of financial quality, not narrative. But two constraints tightened at once — RSI(7) at 80.7 nears extreme, and consensus upside compressed from 26.8% to 14.9%. The stop rises from $137 to $150 just below the 200-day at $152.28, locking in most of the gap's gains, while the target holds at $197 on consensus. A pullback into $155–163 above the 200-day is where adding has risk/reward; buying here simply carries the last two days' buyers.
Maintaining the long. Today was a quality check on this position: in the same expensive-software cohort, DDOG, HUBS and APP each fell roughly a fifth while Palantir gave back 1.58% and held the 200-day at $152.33. The difference is verifiable growth — 149% US commercial expansion is not a narrative. Entry at $148–155 near the 200-day, stop at $137 below the gap's midpoint, and a $196 target all carry over from 8/4, because neither the logic nor the key levels have changed. The 133.3x multiple remains the single largest risk, which is why this stays lean bullish rather than bullish.
A hold above $150-152 support (prior high / SMA200 confluence) keeps the trade; stop at $143 (about one ATR below), with $166 the resistance that unlocks new range once cleared. RSI(7) runs hot — chase with care.
Maintaining the long but stepping down from bullish to lean bullish — the logic hasn't weakened, the price has gotten expensive. After a 29% gap with RSI(7) at 84.0, chasing has inverted risk/reward. The 200-day at $152.54 flips from resistance to support, and a $148–155 pullback that holds is the second entry. Stop at $137 below the gap's midpoint; a break there says this was sentiment rather than a rerating. The $196.50 target uses post-earnings consensus.
The near-12% after-hours gap should clear both the 20-day at $128.71 and 50-day at $130.49 outright; a pullback into that zone that holds confirms the gap. Stop at $118 below the gap's lower edge, target $155 at the 200-day mean-reversion level near $152.62. Do not chase the opening print — the first hour after an earnings gap is the thinnest liquidity of the day.
Down 6.08% after Cleveland Research flagged soft commercial spending. At 139x earnings with the August 3 print ahead and price ~20% below the 200-day, uncertainty is high — close ahead of earnings
Position & watchlist: -1.0%, a -7.3% week grinding at the $125 line with +54% consensus upside — hold, revisit below $115
A +7.3% week reclaimed the 50-day; watchlist and position channels align — the long holds unless $125 gives way
Slipped 1.53% to $132.4 but flat on the week — resilient by AI-complex standards. The $122 stop leaves a fat 7.9% cushion. Stay long.
Up 0.5% to $134.44 against the tape — a +5.3% week is a rare green number inside the AI chain; $122 stop, holding
Flat at $133.76, a third straight day steady above the stop zone; $122 discipline unchanged, holding
Up 2.6% to $130.04, bouncing off the stop zone; $122 discipline unchanged — a bounce is parole, not acquittal
Down 1.7%, a third soft day hugging the 20-day ($124.90); lagging a tech rally is a bad tell, and the $122 stop is one step away — a break means gone
Down 2.4% to the 20-day's rim ($125); weakness on a tech-rally day warrants attention — the $122 stop is bodyguard-close
Down 1.6% but holding above the 20-day ($125) with gains banked; stop $122 locks profit, holding
Keep the long: the 50-day break, safe-harbor status, and weekly momentum target the $150 gap. Raise the stop to $122 (below the 20-day) to protect part of the gain.
Catalyst momentum persists — keep the long. A break of the 50-day ($134.2) opens the $150 gap. But chasing a 14% week has poor odds; add on a 20-day retest. A break of $118 signals momentum exhaustion.
Dense catalysts plus short covering are the tailwind, but chasing a 16% week has terrible odds. A held retest of the 20-day confirms momentum; through the 50-day ($134.6), the target is the $150 gap zone.
Oversold + contract catalyst + $120 reclaimed: the bounce structure works. Take profits at the 50-day ($135) if volume doesn't follow.