Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (13 issues)
Down 0.54%, about 7% under the 20-day and -1.3% YTD. The rare-disease pipeline needs clinical or regulatory catalysts, and none is near-term — close and observe
Position: +0.1% in a quiet base — the patience trade ahead of pipeline catalysts, hold
Quiet consolidation at RSI 47 — a patience position ahead of pipeline catalysts; hold, don't add
Flat, +0.09% at $78.59 after a -12.4% week — profit-taking off the 75% post-Sephience run, nothing broken; product revenue guide raised to $750-850M. The $77 stop is 2% away: no bounce, discipline takes over. Long, on the line.
Down 0.4% to $78.52, day three of the standoff 1.9% above the $77 stop — if the bounce stays feeble, discipline takes over
Up 1.0% to $78.84, still under the 20-day with the $77 stop in its face — the bounce needs volume or discipline takes over
Down 4.2% through the 20-day to $81.33 in the biotech sympathy slide; stop set at $77 (prior low) — another break stops being guilt by association
Down 5.2% with the biotech give-back yet above the 20-day ($82); guilt-by-association from the Ionis scare doesn't change the stock's case — holding
Up 1.1% into fresh 52-week-high territory; the M&A wave plus Ionis's stumble spotlights scarce quality pipelines — holding
Down 0.7%, consolidating at 52-week highs; with the $10B Crinetics deal done, M&A-wave names carry a premium — holding
+4.4% through the 52-week high; long +7.1%, a tailwind name in the biotech M&A wave
+2.6% breaking the 52-week high zone, long +2.6%; biotech strength, hold
Biotech leader closing on its $87.5 52-week high; RSI 65 with a healthy trend