Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/2 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-07
- 2026-07-04Long$18.63 → closed $16.492026-07-08-11.49%
- 2026-07-10Long$18.12 → closed $16.692026-07-29-7.89%
Brief History (13 issues)
Up 1.27% but below the 20-day and -15.6% YTD. A 1.71 rating is soft and the $18.54 consensus implies just 11% upside, with no inflection yet in deliveries or profitability — close and observe
Position: -4.2% in Tesla's sentiment wake — with the R2 ramp ahead and the stock 3% above the 200-day, hold while it holds
Higher lows 10.7% above the 50-day with the R2 ramp as the next catalyst — hold
Up 2.14% to $17.46 against the tape. Post-$1.16B equity raise, delivery guide lifted to 65-70k units; BNP bumps its target $22 to $24. Stop $16.5, earnings 7/30 — stay long.
Down 4.0% to $17.09, 3.5% above the $16.50 stop — the V-reversal's first real pullback; inside the line, holding
Up 1.7% to $17.80 with the week at +13.6% — the V-reversal reignites; stop raised to $16.50, holding
Down 1.0% to $17.31 — sideways digestion after the V-reversal; enough cushion above the $16.20 stop, holding
Down 3.5% the day after re-entry — normal digestion after the V-repair; ample room to the $16.20 stop, holding
Re-opening the long: the reason for the last exit (offering overhang) is gone — priced, closed, overallotment taken, every average reclaimed, guidance raised. Stop at $16.20 (under the MA cluster); a slide back below the $15.50 deal price would falsify the repair.
Up 1.0%, a stabilization day after the offering crash; until pricing lands, both sides are guessing — watching from the sidelines post-exit
Position stopped out (-11.5%): the offering shattered the momentum thesis, and bids won't return until it prices. This is a discipline exit — the delivery story survives, but let the dilution digest first. Reassess on a post-pricing volume dry-up.
+8.1% riding the EV party with TSLA, long +8.1%; RSI 70 above every MA, hold
A 27% week on volume, above every moving average; RSI 65 momentum, though the tape has outrun targets