Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History1/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-24
- 2026-07-22Long$25.5 → closed $28.452026-07-29+11.57%
Brief History (7 issues)
Up another 4.1% on 2.2x volume — 30.5% in a week off the earnings gap, back above the 200-day at 31.9, but the 7-day RSI is cooking at 82.7. The Street's 40.7 target leaves just 3.8% upside on a lukewarm 1.98 rating; the louder the party, the less you hand over chips. Sidelines.
Yesterday's signal was flat, and today is no place to chase a gap: after a one-day +19% move the stock sits ~29% above its 20-day, RSI(7) reads an overbought 80.2, and the $40.67 average target leaves only ~8% of runway—with 19.3% daily volatility and a $2.53 ATR, the odds favor patience. The reference playbook: wait for a pullback into the $33-34 gap zone that holds, with a stop near $30.9 (just under the 200-day at $31.92) and a first objective at $40.7. If the earnings gap gets filled quickly, it means nobody bought the 17.6%-margin story—stay sidelined in that case.
The $31.60 quote is the August 11 cash close, before after-hours results: Q4 revenue of $11.12B grew 93% but missed slightly, gross margin nearly doubled from 9.5% to 17.5%, and FY27 guidance came in at $65-72B. The catch is negative full-year operating cash flow of $6.6-6.8B, debt up to $8.8B, and an unfinished independent review of export-control transactions — staying flat.
Up 1.06% for a 12.4% week with RSI at 55.7, above the 20-day at $28.37 but still under the 50-day at $31.66 and 200-day at $32.07; 46.5% below its high, the bounce is unconfirmed.
Down 4.56% and 13% below the 50-day, 14% below the 200-day, with a 1.98 rating among the weakest in coverage. The AI server narrative cools with the hardware chain; trend and fundamentals both weak — close the position
Position: preliminary Q4 gross-margin guide of 15-17% (nearly doubled), $60B+ of new orders, and the SpaceXAI gigawatt data-center build — up 17.6% on the week, hold; the convert dilution is the buried risk
Scale in on a $27-29 pullback after the gap, don't chase the opening spike; stop at $24.9 (below the regular-session close), first target the $33 moving-average cluster, then the $36 consensus. The 8/11 full report is the defining event risk