Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-24
- 2026-07-22Long$1,589.4 → closed $1,096.12026-07-29-31.04%
Brief History (14 issues)
With ATR at $196 — nearly 18% of spot — any stop gets taken out by noise, so the risk/reward does not compute. A 35% three-day drop is panic liquidation rather than orderly correction, and CXMT represents a supply-side narrative shift, not a sentiment shock; that takes time to digest. The prior long signal moves to neutral (flat) — not bearish enough to short, but acknowledging the sharply raised risk that the bull case (a sustained memory pricing cycle) has been invalidated. Step aside and watch $1,000 and the 200-day at $827.
Position: NAND pricing seen +234% in 2026, Susquehanna at $3,250, July global NAND sales at a record — in the year's best stock, pullbacks are entries, hold
The bounce hasn't cleared the 50-day, so chasing has poor odds: scale in on a $1,480-1,580 retest with a $1,380 stop (half an ATR below the prior low), and add above $1,730 toward $1,900
Down 3.99% to $1,354.82 after a 23.8% weekly storage massacre: the Hynix crash is the new valuation anchor, HBM4 shipments disappointed, and Buffett name-checked the speculation as a casino attached to the church. BofA raised its target to $2,500 anyway. Bulls and bears at a standoff — not picking a side.
Down 12.6% to $1,411.08, -30% in three days: even BofA's contrarian $2,500 target can't catch capitulation — a stock whose bull and bear targets differ by 2x belongs to the audience; sidelines
Down 8.1% to $1,615 in memory's second leg, -23% on the month; WSB mentions up 2.6x and all of them exit threads — the $1,580 shelf is the last line; sidelines
After a 74% three-month run, the holder base amplifies every piece of bad news. The cycle isn't disproven, but momentum is broken — let the profit-takers finish before getting back in line.
Up 3.1%, a third gain on SKHY debut heat as the memory trio (MU/SKHY/SNDK) got collectively repriced this week; volatility remains the entry fee
Up 7.6% on memory pricing plus SKHY heat, WSB #6 and warming — but a $205 ATR is strictly professional-grade turbulence
Up 6.8% on the memory upcycle, WSB #4 against a -17% week — a +607% YTD rollercoaster strictly for the seat-belted
-7.3% through the 50-day, -23% on the week; memory's weakest link, stay sidelined
A 12% ATR means stops get swept by noise — size it like a wager. Weaker than Micron; better to wait for a 50-day squat than chase. Losing $1,626 puts the cycle story into triage.
A 12% daily ATR means any stop can get swept by noise — size it like a wager, not an investment; chips no bigger than dinner money. Lose the 50-day ($1,610) and the cycle story goes into triage.
The +732% YTD memory highflyer whipsawed -10.6% with MU; disciplined traders only