Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (23 issues)
Up 2.25% to 145.36, stuck in no-man's-land between the 20-day (132.85) and 50-day (182.98) with RSI dead-neutral at 49.3. Semis sit at the sharp end of AI earnings season — AMAT's double beat got sold, Cisco's margins got taken out back — sentiment is split down the middle. YTD +222% yet -22.6% on the month: a textbook lesson in 3x volatility decay, bleeding even when the index goes sideways. No adds while the post-earnings dust settles; below the 50-day this is a bounce, not a reversal.
The 3x semiconductor bull surged 6.89% to 142.16 as chips rallied behind Nvidia and blowout 19% pops in Super Micro and CoreWeave. RSI at 48.3 has only just recovered to neutral; price reclaimed the 20-day SMA (132.71) but sits far below the 50-day (185.40), down 18.6% over the past month with 10%+ daily volatility. A strong bounce, not a repaired trend — 3x decay is brutal in swings this violent, so this suits only tight-stop rebound trades.
Up 2.31% with RSI at 45.4. A 3x semiconductor long down 27.1% on the month — a demonstration of how brutally compounding decay bites in choppy declines, even when the underlying index falls far less.
Down 7.31% with RSI at 44.5. A 3x long on semiconductors: today's circular-financing selloff turned a 2.4% sector decline into a 7.31% loss, a reminder that leverage is symmetric on the way down.
Up 5.99% against a mixed tape with RSI neutral at 47.1 after an 8.0% week; memory struggled while compute firmed, splitting the sector internally, and 3x leverage is hard to direct through dispersion. Risk remains extreme.
Essentially flat at +0.20% with RSI neutral at 44.8; up 23.2% on the week yet still down 20.0% on the month. That the memory bloodbath didn't sink it shows clear dispersion within semis — leveraged risk remains extreme.
3x long semiconductors, down 5.6% today as AMD's post-earnings drop amplified the fall, RSI 44.7. Sharp intra-chip divergence and high leverage risk — short-term only with very tight stops.
Up 19.87%, the largest leveraged-ETF gain on the board, as the whole semiconductor chain erupted (MU +7.6%, AMD +7.0%, AVGO +6.6%). Yet it is still down 36.2% on the month — decay has already bitten hard and the risk is extreme.
Up just 1.73%, far weaker than the tape, with a 46.8% monthly loss — the worst on the board. Semiconductor dispersion amplifies 3x decay, RSI is weak at 40.2, and the risk is extreme.
Down 14.52% in a session at RSI 36.0. CXMT's listing and reports of Chinese DUV production pressured semis, and 3x leverage turned the sector's 4.8% decline into a rout — decay makes this unsuitable to hold
Down 2.2% with semis torn (INTC +12% after hours versus a sector pullback) — 3x leverage gets hit from both sides in a dispersed tape
The memory rally detonated a +15.9% day, but the -40% month shows 3x leverage eats chop as eagerly as rallies — trade trend days, don't hold overnight faith
Down 4.92% to $135.47, -25.7% on the week and -45.2% on the month — a 3x amplifier of the SOX bear; catching this knife means catching three at once
Down 13.9% to $142.48, -46.7% on the month — two 14% single-day losses in two weeks; in a divergent tape this product retains educational value only
Down 6.3% to $165.55, the 3x invoice of memory's second leg, -37.8% on the month — in a divergent semis tape, leverage is self-harm
Down 14.0% to $165.37, the 3x casualty of the SK Hynix shockwave — a 14% single-day loss is the entire argument against holding this long
Flat to close the week, still -12.3% over five days — leverage scars heal slowly
Up 10.1% on day two of the 3x chip party, yet still -12.2% for the week — leverage math is never symmetric
Up 5.8% in a 3x chip-bounce party — while the -26.5% week reminds you the downside is 3x too
-15.1% in a day; WSB mentions 4x'd on dip-buying — there is no 'long-term investing' inside 3x leverage
+7.3% 3x semis violent bounce, steadying after a -16% month; no iron stop, no touch
-16.6% in a day, -35.5% on the month: 3x semis is this cycle's meat grinder — no iron stop, no touch
-18% in one day — the memory rout at 3x. Don't touch until MU stabilizes; leveraged decay is at its worst in extreme volatility