Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History1/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-04
- 2026-07-02Long$157.54 → closed $160.422026-07-07+1.83%
Brief History (14 issues)
Up 2.56% but halved from the $225.64 post-IPO high, RSI 36.4. At 62x sales with negative EPS and less than two months of trading history, there is no verifiable structure — remain on the sidelines
Watchlist: -12.4% on the week, -21.7% on the month — WSB rank 5 heat can't fix the float; the SpaceXAI-SMCI data-center build is the one new bright spot, wait for stabilization
The -34.4% monthly grind isn't over, and WSB's #4 ranking can't fix the float structure — sidelines until the next Starship launch
Passive flows are spent and active money is waiting out the unlock — no supply-demand fix before 8/6, and a successful-launch rally most likely opens the exit window for trapped longs
Down 3.1% to $131.11, a third day under the IPO price with the space-sector sweep piling on — no antidote for trapped passive money before the 8/6 earnings-and-lockup double event; sidelines
Down 0.6% to $135.27, below the IPO price for the first time — the passive money is now all underwater; staying sidelined into the 8/6 earnings-plus-lockup double event
With a 3–5% float, price discovery waits until lock-ups release supply. First earnings and first expiry on the same day make 8/6 a revaluation event, not a trading day.
Down 4.5% to $145.30, the lowest since listing under broken-IPO shadow and lock-up anxiety; observation only until a right-side signal
Up 2.6% yet still 9% off range lows with WSB heat cooling (138→101); no verdict before the lock-up passes
Down 0.8% in choppy post-IPO trade, 4% off range lows; WSB #5 buzz can't soothe lock-up anxiety
Stay sidelined: the give-back isn't done, and $147 is the level everyone watches — a hold starts a double bottom, a break fires the next leg down. No need to pick a side before the Starship flight late this month.
Shift from long to sidelines: the inclusion catalyst lands today, and history says inclusion marks the top with a one-month give-back. $4.3B passive vs. trapped-supply distribution makes the short-term game messy. Holders can scale out into any inclusion-day spike to bank the gain.
Index inclusion is guaranteed passive demand, and the Starship flight is a lottery option — clean event-driven logic. But this is a swing, not a hold: the inclusion premium historically unwinds within a month. The stop below the $147 post-IPO low is non-negotiable.
Index-inclusion passive buying is a near-certain event and price is at the range low — good odds. Mind the 'sell the news' effect: close event positions around July 7.