SPCX

After a 31.9% weekly rip the stock still trades 16% above its 20-day, volume is fading (rvol 0.81), and $42.5B of supply hits in four sessions — the odds don't favor chasing. The playbook: let unlock pressure pull price back into the $135 IPO price-to-SMA20 ($121.73) zone before engaging; a break of $116 (half an ATR below the 20-day) means the supply shock is winning, cut it. If the unlock gets absorbed and $135 holds, $160 — one ATR above the 8/12 high of $148 — is the objective. Until then, flat and watching.

Up 30% in a week, stretched +20.6% above the SMA20, RSI7 at 68.7 — the near-term move is spent; the harder constraint is the ~$42.5B second unlock on Aug 20, just five sessions away, with an $11.7 ATR (8% of price) making a chase here terrible odds. Discipline says stand aside: if the unlock clears and price stabilizes on a pullback to $125-133 (within one ATR of the SMA20), reassess a long, with a $118 stop (a half-step buffer below the 121.2 SMA20) and $161 — the IPO-day closing high resistance — as the bounce target. No position for now.

Down 3.93% with RSI a neutral 52.4, holding 10.5% above the 20-day yet still 40.9% below its 52-week high; 40 analysts at $225.79 imply 69.4% upside, but a short listing history leaves no moving-average framework — staying on the sidelines.

Up 4.23% for a 30.4% week with RSI at 55.4, above the 20-day at $120.82; 40 analysts see $225.79, 62.7% above spot, but the 900M-share unlock is still being digested — staying sidelined.

Staying sidelined, while recording a three-brief error clearly: from 8/4 onward I flagged the 8/6 expiration as a foreseeable supply shock, and the actual result was a 22% two-day gain around it. The mistake was equating more supply with lower prices, ignoring that a fully anticipated negative becomes a cleared overhang once it arrives. That said, the core reason for taking no direction survives intact: the name still has no 50-day or 200-day, so a stop cannot be set reliably; the payback on $18.4B of quarterly capex is unclear; and there is no P/E or gross margin to cross-check. Terafab and Cursor are both plans that have yet to land. Wait for the moving-average structure to form.

Staying sidelined, but the part I got wrong needs stating plainly: in the two prior briefs I flagged the 8/6 lockup as a foreseeable supply shock, and the actual outcome was a 6.14% advance on heavy volume. That call was directionally wrong, because the market had already priced the selling in advance. The core reason for taking no direction, however, still holds unchanged: without a 50-day or 200-day, a stop cannot be set reliably; quarterly capex at 2.4x revenue leaves the payback period entirely unclear; and there is no P/E or gross margin to cross-check. A 97.6% consensus upside cannot be supported by verifiable financials. Wait for the moving-average structure to form.

Don't step in before the Aug 6 lockup selling clears; a break of the $105 prior low could accelerate the slide. Wait for the unlock to settle and a volume-backed stabilization before reassessing — sidelines for now. A hold after a break below $105 on shrinking volume may offer a speculative window at $95-105.

Staying sidelined, with firmer grounds than yesterday. Two variables compound: the maiden report knocked the stock 8.8% after hours and the market hasn't finished pricing $18.4B of quarterly capex; and the first major lockup expiry is two trading days away, making early-holder supply a foreseeable shock. With no 50-day or 200-day, even a technical stop cannot be set reliably. Taking a direction with no moving-average anchor, the weakest financial transparency here, and a scheduled supply shock in two days means paying for uncertainty with position risk. Revisit after the lockup.

Up 5.68% but down 28.3% on the month with RSI still soft at 38.3, no moving-average history and no verifiable financials. The 99.2% consensus upside cannot be independently checked; sidelines.

Up 2.56% but halved from the $225.64 post-IPO high, RSI 36.4. At 62x sales with negative EPS and less than two months of trading history, there is no verifiable structure — remain on the sidelines

Watchlist: -12.4% on the week, -21.7% on the month — WSB rank 5 heat can't fix the float; the SpaceXAI-SMCI data-center build is the one new bright spot, wait for stabilization

The -34.4% monthly grind isn't over, and WSB's #4 ranking can't fix the float structure — sidelines until the next Starship launch

Passive flows are spent and active money is waiting out the unlock — no supply-demand fix before 8/6, and a successful-launch rally most likely opens the exit window for trapped longs

Down 3.1% to $131.11, a third day under the IPO price with the space-sector sweep piling on — no antidote for trapped passive money before the 8/6 earnings-and-lockup double event; sidelines

Down 0.6% to $135.27, below the IPO price for the first time — the passive money is now all underwater; staying sidelined into the 8/6 earnings-plus-lockup double event

With a 3–5% float, price discovery waits until lock-ups release supply. First earnings and first expiry on the same day make 8/6 a revaluation event, not a trading day.

Down 4.5% to $145.30, the lowest since listing under broken-IPO shadow and lock-up anxiety; observation only until a right-side signal

Up 2.6% yet still 9% off range lows with WSB heat cooling (138→101); no verdict before the lock-up passes

Down 0.8% in choppy post-IPO trade, 4% off range lows; WSB #5 buzz can't soothe lock-up anxiety

Stay sidelined: the give-back isn't done, and $147 is the level everyone watches — a hold starts a double bottom, a break fires the next leg down. No need to pick a side before the Starship flight late this month.

Shift from long to sidelines: the inclusion catalyst lands today, and history says inclusion marks the top with a one-month give-back. $4.3B passive vs. trapped-supply distribution makes the short-term game messy. Holders can scale out into any inclusion-day spike to bank the gain.

Index inclusion is guaranteed passive demand, and the Starship flight is a lottery option — clean event-driven logic. But this is a swing, not a hold: the inclusion premium historically unwinds within a month. The stop below the $147 post-IPO low is non-negotiable.

Index-inclusion passive buying is a near-certain event and price is at the range low — good odds. Mind the 'sell the news' effect: close event positions around July 7.