Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (5 issues)
Up 0.29% with RSI still weak at 40.1 on 2.97x volume; weak payrolls lifted cut expectations yet long duration responded only mildly, remaining below the 50-day at 84.80 and 200-day at 87.05.
Up 0.77% but with RSI still weak at 38.8, below the 50-day at 84.94 and 200-day at 87.18; long duration lacks an allocation case while equities set records.
Up 0.59% at RSI 46.3 with tonight's Fed decision the direct catalyst. Markets put 62% odds on holding at 3.50%–3.75%, though 40% still expect two hikes by December
Crushed by the 10-year at 4.707% (an 18-month high); RSI 31 is oversold but the downtrend runs — wait for the FOMC before catching
Down 0.2% as hike odds pressed long bonds, RSI 36.5; until oil rests, duration won't