Technicals — Up 8.8% to $18.12, a 17% premium to the $15.50 offer, reclaiming the converged 20/50/200-day cluster ($15.70–16.40) in one move. 1.6x volume confirms real demand and the offering-crash gap has fully filled — a V-shaped repair after the supply shock cleared.
Fundamentals — The offering priced at $15.50, raised $1.2B and closed on 7/9 with the overallotment fully exercised — institutions loaded up at that level. Add Q2 deliveries of 12,194 beating guidance, the full-year raise to 65–70k, and DoE loan matching funds in place: dilution bought certainty for the R2 ramp.
News — Benzinga flagged the moving-average reclaim; ts2 noted the climb back over deal price with focus on 42,441 YTD deliveries. Last week's panic supply became this week's institutional cost basis.
Re-opening the long: the reason for the last exit (offering overhang) is gone — priced, closed, overallotment taken, every average reclaimed, guidance raised. Stop at $16.20 (under the MA cluster); a slide back below the $15.50 deal price would falsify the repair.
The R2 ramp and DoE-backed capacity story now has funding certainty, but profitability remains distant; treat it as a catalyst-driven trade, not a buy-and-hold conviction.
- Losing the $15.50 deal-price floor turns it into resistance
- Q2 margins and the R2 ramp cadence
- EV demand and tariff-policy swings
- 07-04Long$18.63 → closed $16.4907-08-11.49%
- 07-10Long$18.12 → open → $18.12+0.00%
- StockTwits · Last week's 'dilution vampires' posts have become 'smart to raise at highs' praise — retail memory is exactly one green candle longOriginal ↗
- 华尔街共识 · 29 analysts average $18.70 (at spot), 1.74 rating — targets get remarked as the raise digests and guidance lifts
- StockTitan · 75M shares priced at $15.50 for ~$1.2B, overallotment fully exercisedSource ↗
