Technicals — Up 6.0% on 1.9x volume to $669.21, +10.1% for the week, clearing both the 50- and 200-day in two sessions and flipping YTD positive. RSI 66.3 is warm, not extreme; the $700 round number and $740 prior-high zone are staged targets, with gap support at $640.
Fundamentals — Meta Compute reprices 'excess capex' as 'cloud revenue optionality': Wolfe Research models ~20% EPS upside per gigawatt of cloud capacity. The Iris chip ships in September targeting ~14GW next year, and the Muse Spark/Image model suite lands across the ad stack — for the first time, ads and compute form a twin-engine narrative.
News — Shares rose 6% on announcement day, turning positive for the year, with WSB mentions exploding a second day (57→240→sustained). Wolfe backed the new story with an $800 target, and the market began re-marking its capex through the AVGO/ORCL compute-valuation lens.
Holding: narrative upgrade, dual-average breakout and the YTD flip give triple confirmation. Stop raised from $590 to $620 (under the gap's lower rim) to lock the re-rating gain; a gap-fill below $620 before late-July earnings would mean the market isn't paying for the new story.
Ad cash cow, Meta Compute optionality and Iris cost-down run in parallel — a rare megacap whose new story just opened to page one; if the 14GW target lands, cloud becomes the second revenue curve.
- Unproven margins and utilization on external compute sales
- Above-plan capex squeezing free cash flow
- Iris production-yield risk
- 07-02Long$612.91 → closed $582.907-04-4.90%
- 07-07Long$600.29 → open → $669.21+11.48%
- WSB · Last week they mocked 'Zuck burning cash again'; this week they're computing EPS per gigawatt — retail learns new valuation frameworks at a speed exactly proportional to the share priceOriginal ↗
- 华尔街共识 · 68 analysts, average target $823 (+23% vs. spot), 1.13 — strong-buy territory
- Wolfe Research · ~20% EPS upside per GW of cloud capacity, $800 target — capex flips from cost line to option bookSource ↗
