Daily Brief Archive: July 14, 2026 — U.S. & Hong Kong Stock Analysis

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U.S. Markets

SK Hynix cratered 15.4% — its worst day ever — dragging the SOX down; SOXL fell 14% in one session
KOSPI plunged 9.95%, tripping its 7th circuit breaker this year; Samsung -10.7%, index now 27% off the June peak
US-Iran strikes escalated: Tehran declared Hormuz 'unnavigable'; Brent jumped 5% through $80
Energy bucked the tape: XLE +3%, XOP +4.2%; richly valued software dumped — AppLovin's 5-day slide hit -18.6%
Oracle fell 6.5% for a ninth straight loss and a fresh 52-week low — no antidote yet for the capex-and-debt narrative
Microsoft +1.5% and IBM +0.9%: defensive money hid in big-cap value tech

Hong Kong

Hang Seng opened soft this morning; tech lagged — Baidu fell as much as 8% to lead decliners, Zhipu -10%
Kunlunxin's IPO 'bundling' clause stirred controversy; the market voted with its feet on Baidu's spin-off premium
Oil & petrochemicals outperformed: Sinopec +2.4%; Zijin +3.3% as gold-copper repair continued
CXO names hit highs against the tape: Asymchem +4.9% near a record, WuXi Bio printed another swing high
GigaDevice V-bounced 9.5% the day after its lock-up expiry; MiniMax caught a 3.3% oversold breather
Lithium bounced from oversold: Ganfeng +2.8%, Tianqi +3.3% — the weekly wounds are far from healed

Today's Watchlist

Tonight 8:30pm HKT: US June CPI — consensus sees 4.2%→3.9%, core 2.9%; the year's biggest data point
All five megabanks report premarket tonight; the SpaceX IPO lifts group IB revenue estimates by 26%
New Fed Chair Warsh gives his first Congressional testimony; markets are pricing rising odds of a September hike
Hormuz: US floats a maritime blockade plus a 20% transit levy — oil risks a second spike
Position tripwires: TSLA $390, NVDA $196, BEAM $30.5, CELH $29.6
Ahead: TSLA and IBM report 7/22; SpaceX's first earnings and first lock-up expiry land 8/6

Deep Dives (1 names)

Neutral

1772 赣锋锂业 · Materials / Lithium

HK Oversold

0.00%07-09“An RSI of 26.8 on a stock already halved in three months can still fall another thirty percent — with CATL's mine restarting and West Africa ramping, supply-side bad news is a rainy season, and you don't step out before seeing an umbrella (volume drying up into a base); this morning's +2.8% was just a minute spent under the eaves”

HK$41.72

+2.76%

Score5/10RSI(14) 26.8Week / month / 3M -15.6% / -30.5% / -49.9%Lithium carbonate RMB 205k → 147k per tonneSupply side CATL mine restarting + West Africa's largest mine onstreamConsensus target HK$85.7 (+105%)

Technicals — Every average points down and price sits 29% below the 200-day; this morning's 2.8% uptick is an RSI-26 technical gasp on 0.8x volume — even the bounce drew no crowd. The 52-week low at HK$23.8 is a reminder of how much room remains below.

Fundamentals — The earnings-vs-price rift: volume growth plus hedging may keep the interim report respectable, but the market is pricing 2027 oversupply — Goldman sees the lithium market tipping into surplus in H2, so earnings-delivery day doubles as money-exit day.

News — Tianqi's A-shares limit-downed on July 8 as supply-increase headlines hammered the sector; NBD reports money voting with its feet just as lithium earnings deliver. This morning HK lithium bounced together (Tianqi +3.3%) — the weekly wounds are nowhere near healed.

Short-term · 1–3 weeks

Neutral Sidelines

Oversold guarantees bounce elasticity, not a reversal. Oversupply gets priced over quarters, and every day on the left side has more patience than you do.

Entry Three conditions, no exceptions: volume below 0.7x, the weekly chart stabilizing, and lithium futures basing; below the HK$40 round number, HK$35 is nextStop —Target —

Long-term · months+

Neutral

Global resource depth plus vertical integration make this next-cycle bottom inventory — but the left side is long; talk allocation only after supply-clearing signals (curtailments, bankruptcies, capex collapse).

Deepening surplus and a second leg down in lithium prices
Twin selling pressure across A and H shares
Hedging gains masking spot deterioration

Community Voices

雪球 · Cries of 'lithium is being slaughtered' flood the feed — retail counts bottoms while the bottom counts retailOriginal ↗

Institutional Views

华尔街共识 · 11 analysts average HK$85.7 — 105% above spot; that's a relic of the last cycle, don't anchor to it
高盛（转引） · Sees the lithium market in surplus in H2Source ↗
每日经济新闻 · Lithium stocks grow earnings while money walks; supply additions cap the multipleSource ↗

Rapid Scan (9 names)

Ticker	Close	Change	Score	Direction	One-line take
100 HK	HK$230	+3.32%	5	Neutral	Up 3.3% this morning at HK$230.00 — a technical gasp after the lock-up halving; of the three conditions (volume dry-up, base, 20-day reclaim), zero are met — keep waiting
3317 HK	HK$90.55	+7.86%	4	Neutral	Up 7.9% this morning at HK$90.55 — an oversold snapback 76% off the high; this newcomer is pure poltergeist, not participating
586 HK	HK$8.2	-1.80%	5	Neutral	Down 1.8% this morning at HK$8.20, RSI 25.5 among the most oversold on the board — the enviro cash flow is real, the catalyst is absent; sidelines
3800 HK	HK$0.59	-6.35%	4	Neutral	Down 6.4% this morning at HK$0.59 — polysilicon glut plus penny-stock liquidity is a double discount; avoid
2380 HK	HK$2.67	-1.84%	5	Neutral	Down 1.8% this morning at HK$2.67 — a power utility at RSI 28 in a headwind phase; the dividend is the only comfort; sidelines
2590 HK	HK$9.76	-1.31%	4	Neutral	Down 1.3% this morning at HK$9.76 — the newcomer broke down 71% off its high; the warehouse-robot pitch has lost its voice; avoid
9696 HK	HK$34.16	+3.26%	5	Neutral	Up 3.3% this morning at HK$34.16, breathing in sync with Ganfeng — at 13–15x forward it's the cheaper twin, but cheap has never stopped a lithium price from falling; sidelines
914 HK	HK$16.56	-0.90%	5	Neutral	Down 0.9% this morning at HK$16.56 — cement's off-season plus the property drag; RSI 32 grinds a silent bottom; sidelines
968 HK	HK$1.97	+1.55%	5	Neutral	Up 1.6% this morning at HK$1.97 — solar glass waits for capacity-clearing signals; at RSI 30 the price is more honest than the story; sidelines