Technicals — One month post-IPO there's little map beyond the 20-day at $163 (now resistance); the $136.78 all-time low sits one step below. Volume at 0.8x on the grind lower — no panic, just disappointment, and that kind of decline tends to outlast panic.
Fundamentals — Q1 revenue of $4.7B, Starlink past 10M subscribers, and ~$27.8B/yr of AI-compute contracts (Anthropic at $1.25B/mo, Google at $920M/mo through 2029) — the assets are scarce. But with only 3–5% of shares floating, today's price is set by supply-demand distortion, not fundamental discovery.
News — The fastest-ever Nasdaq-100 inclusion marked the sell-the-news top: passive funds were forced to absorb roughly $4.3B above $145, and the classic post-inclusion fade has since carved the stock down to $139 — below most of that passive cost basis.
With a 3–5% float, price discovery waits until lock-ups release supply. First earnings and first expiry on the same day make 8/6 a revaluation event, not a trading day.
The only scarce 'space + AI compute' asset with an intact long-term story; but the IPO premium isn't fully washed out, and successive lock-up waves stand between here and honest valuation.
- Lock-up supply waves starting 8/6
- Wholesale repricing as the float expands
- Event risk from Starship mission failures
- 07-02Long$157.54 → closed $160.4207-07+1.83%
- WSB · Mentions jumped 90→237 with 2,748 upvotes, the board's highest — 'index funds are standing guard at the peak, do we join them?' is the headline thread; sheep or lead wolf, the lock-up date will tellOriginal ↗
- 华尔街共识 · 34 analysts average $242 — 74% above spot; 1.29 rating
- SpotGamma · How index rules forced SPY/QQQ/IWM to sell incumbents and buy SpaceX — a mechanical-flow breakdownSource ↗
- TradingKey · A 3% float against $4.3B of forced passive buying: how the scarcity premium formed — and how it recedesSource ↗