Technicals — The regular session closed at $125.65, up 2.1%, but the real move came after hours, with the stock up nearly 12% on the print. On the daily chart price still sits below the 20-day ($128.71), 50-day ($130.49) and 200-day ($152.62), with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.7 — meaning the after-hours gap has a genuine shot at reclaiming both the 20- and 50-day in one move. Relative volume of 2.51 was among the highest on the board, evidence money was positioning ahead of the print. ATR is $6.32; resistance is the 200-day at $152.62, support the 52-week low at $106.37.
Fundamentals — Q2 FY26 EPS of $0.41 versus $0.28 expected was a 46.4% beat and the ninth consecutive quarter above consensus. Revenue of $1.94B grew 92.8%, with US commercial revenue up 149% to $764M. GAAP operating income of $912M carried a 47% margin, adjusted operating income of $1.19B a 62% margin, and the Rule of 40 score hit 155% — hypergrowth and deep profitability together, a genuinely rare combination in software. Full-year guidance was raised to $8.150–8.158B (+82%) with adjusted free cash flow of $4.5–4.7B.
News — Palantir reported Q2 after the close on 8/3, beating across the board and sharply raising full-year guidance, with 149% US commercial growth the headline — a direct answer to the year's running debate over whether AI demand is real. Shares surged nearly 12% once the call wrapped. Notably, the market's prior framing was that a beat without a raise wouldn't move the stock; Palantir lifted full-year US commercial guidance above $3.424B, at least 134% growth, clearing that bar with room to spare.
The near-12% after-hours gap should clear both the 20-day at $128.71 and 50-day at $130.49 outright; a pullback into that zone that holds confirms the gap. Stop at $118 below the gap's lower edge, target $155 at the 200-day mean-reversion level near $152.62. Do not chase the opening print — the first hour after an earnings gap is the thinnest liquidity of the day.
149% US commercial growth proves enterprise AI demand is real, and a 62% adjusted operating margin with $4.5–4.7B of free cash flow guidance shows this isn't growth bought with cash burn. But 141.6x trailing earnings prices in several years of flawless execution.
- At 141x, a single quarter of deceleration is not forgiven
- Heavy government exposure ties revenue to budget cycles and political variables
- Still down 30.7% year to date, a sign the valuation reset isn't finished
- 07-02Long$125.73 → closed $123.5307-29-1.75%
- 08-04Long$125.65 → open → $125.65+0.00%
- WSB · Mentions exploded from 14 to 287 in 24 hours, a twentyfold jump straight to third place. Retail always arrives after the institutions on earnings day, but this time they were on the right sideOriginal ↗
- StockTwits · A 13.2 trending score and 323K watchlists make it one of the hottest names on the platform. When the crowd is this loud, remember you're buying 141x earningsOriginal ↗
- 华尔街共识 · 35 analysts average a $189.04 target, about 50.5% above spot, at a 1.47 buy rating — note these are pre-earnings targets and revisions are likely higher