Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (2 issues)
The industrial logic of optical interconnect is real: GPU cluster bandwidth genuinely exceeds copper's physical limits, and only optics resolves that bottleneck. But after a 35.5% week, a 243.8x multiple paired with consensus targets 8.8% below spot means any direction I take would rest on the assumption that every analyst is wrong — and that isn't an assumption I'll book. A 10.4% ATR also makes it hard to place a stop at sane distance. Wait for a pullback to the 50-day at $357.15 to confirm this wasn't just a sentiment spike.
Down 5.04% to $303.62, a fifth straight loss for -23.4% cumulative and $17B of market cap gone. A 204x PE is first against the wall in the Hynix contagion, insider selling on top. Pure valuation strangulation, no fundamental break — still not catching it.