Technicals — Down 7.5% to HK$275.20, -22.5% on the week, now 50%+ off the post-IPO high with RSI touching the oversold rim at 30.8. Relative volume has faded from 5.2x to 1.3x — selling pressure is ebbing at the margin, but so are the bids; a shrinking-volume grind hurts longer than a crash.
Fundamentals — No new fundamental negatives — this is pure float clearance: the 63% unlock supply is far from digested, and the honeymoon-era HK$877 target sits an entire lock-up away from reality. Model monetization data is the next narrative-changing variable, with no release window in sight.
News — A fifth straight down day even as HK's AI complex stays warm — the flow hierarchy persists: Alibaba and Tencent harvest the re-rating while the unlocking float digests supply alone.
Restated a second day: supply shocks don't bottom on price, they bottom on exhaustion. RSI just touched 30 — unlock regimes have historically camped in the 20s for weeks.
Still a scarce first-tier frontier-model asset, and a 50% drawdown improves the risk-reward; but an allocation case still awaits two prerequisites — the unlock cycle ending and monetization data landing.
- Further unlock tranches sustaining supply
- Funding dependence and burn rate
- Rival model iteration speed
- 雪球 · 'Down 50%, surely that's the bottom' — bottoms aren't computed in percentages; they're defined by the last disappointed sellerOriginal ↗
- 华尔街共识 · 18 analysts average HK$877 — an IPO-honeymoon artifact whose gap to spot is itself the warning
