Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (11 issues)
Up 0.88% with RSI at 30.8, but ~38% below the 200-day after a deep drawdown. The lithium price cycle has not confirmed a bottom — remain on the sidelines
The catalysts are real but the pattern has taken only its first step: chasing the day after a +9.9% bar carries poor odds with the HK$44-46 supply zone unabsorbed. Trade the retest for better odds — and if it runs without you, let it
Deeply oversold at RSI 23 after a -38.3% month — until lithium turns, the 10-analyst +131% target is scenery through a telescope
Down 5.07% to HK$37.82 with lithium off 38% on the month at RSI 22.5 — flat-exiting this position earlier was exactly right. Oversold is not a bottom; no knife-catching.
Down 2.9% this morning at HK$38.70, losing the HK$40 round number at an RSI of 23.4 — the board's most oversold; the three conditions from last issue (volume dry-up, weekly base, lithium futures stabilizing) remain zero for three; sidelines
Oversold guarantees bounce elasticity, not a reversal. Oversupply gets priced over quarters, and every day on the left side has more patience than you do.
Down 3.4%, RSI 24.2 probing new lows on day three of Goldman's Sell; the lithium clearance is still in deep water
Down 0.5%, RSI 25.4, flatlining on the floor with Goldman's Sell still radiating; lithium bottoms come from mine closures, not indicators
An RSI-26 bounce is a trader's game, not an investor's opportunity; shorting has poor odds too — the negatives are priced, and any supply-side surprise triggers violent short covering.
-4.2% at RSI 27.9, -17% month; lithium bottoms globally in sync — don't front-run
-5.1% lithium at RSI 29.9, -18% month; left-side at the lithium trough, sidelines