Technicals — Up 3.7% to HK$112.00, +18.6% on the week, leading against the tape as HK tech slipped. RSI 57 has room and the 50-day (HK$117.50) is first resistance; but an 11% extension over the 20-day (HK$101.20) means retest pressure is accumulating.
Fundamentals — The three-day re-rating rests on unchanged pillars: Q1 e-commerce profit repair with flash-sale losses shrinking faster than expected, first position on the H200 access list, and banks collectively lifting China AI valuation frameworks. After +18.6% in a week, the fastest leg of the re-rating is done — earnings must take the baton.
News — In Friday's structural tape with tech broadly soft, its +3.7% shows the bid is active allocation, not sector beta. The southbound-versus-foreign tug-of-war over pricing power is the next act.
Holding (~+9% in three days): strength independent of the sector confirms the re-rating isn't done. Stop raised from HK$100 to HK$105 to bank half the gain, with the next raise past the 50-day (HK$117.50).
The cloud-plus-AI second curve just got a tangible compute catalyst, with stabilized e-commerce profits as the cushion; still 22% below the 200-day, the re-rating runway isn't spent.
- H200 access policy reversals
- Technical give-back after an 18.6% week
- A reignited subsidy war eroding the profit repair
- 07-02LongHK$94.5 → closed HK$94.107-04-0.42%
- 07-08LongHK$99.6 → open → HK$112+12.45%
- 雪球 · From 'selling the bounce at 110' to 'this time is different' took exactly three days — stops don't change conviction; people without stops doOriginal ↗
- 华尔街共识 · 34 analysts, average target HK$186.40 (+66% vs. spot), 1.16 — strong-buy territory
