Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (11 issues)
Down 6.08% with RSI at an extreme 13.2. Internal disputes over trial data analysis and statistical plans persist ahead of an FDA advisory meeting; event risk in micro-cap biotech is uncontrollable — not participating
Up 1.67% to $19.44. The short banked -28.7% on the month; ahead sit a 7/29 adcomm and an 8/22 PDUFA with 34% of the float short and a record-squeeze history. Holding short into that is gambling, not trading — profits taken, covered.
Down 6.0% to $19.12, losing the $20 handle; trailing stop $24→$22, staying short
Down 1.6% to $20.35, the grind lower continues; trailing stop stays $24, short on
Down 4.2% to $20.61 with no resistance in the channel; trailing stop lowered to $24, staying short
Down 4.4%, another leg lower with the short around +8%; losing the 200-day ($22.70) opens the floor — staying short
A feeble +1.1% bounce under an unbroken 20-day cap ($25.70); the downtrend channel holds — staying short
Flat; the downtrend channel is intact with the 20-day ($25.90) capping — staying short
-0.9%, short +3.7%; the downtrend holds — IBB's highs aren't its highs
Biotech -3.4%, short +2.8%; below the 20/50-day, downtrend intact, hold short
Biotech lottery ticket: revenue near zero, -22% month — avoid