Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won
- 2026-07-14Long$290.23 → closed $211.22026-07-16-27.23%
Brief History (6 issues)
The 7/15 warning already settled the account with a 25% crash; the official slight miss stabilized at +0.4%. RSI 30 repair phase — no right-side signal yet, sidelines
Reports tonight at an oversold RSI 31: good numbers start a gap-fill, bad ones start the battle for $200 — sidelines into the event
Down 2.91% to $212.67, still rubble from a 28.5% post-earnings weekly collapse. Already paid 27% tuition on this name once — not paying it twice.
Up 3.7% to $219.05 in the post-crash day-two snap, the $230 gap rim unreclaimed — we're out; this bounce is short-covering, not an invitation; sidelines
Position post-mortem: the $275 stop was gapped through at the 7/14 open and the exit executed at the open per discipline — this long settles at a heavy loss. Lesson archived: into any event window (earnings or warnings), event positions get halved, never carried at full size overnight.
Counter-tape strength, a bullish MA stack and a dated catalyst (7/22) all line up; the $275 stop sits under the 20-day/200-day cluster. This trade harvests narrative fermentation, not valuation — earnings day is settlement day, don't overstay.