Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (12 issues)
RSI 27 oversold with tariff uncertainty (Section 122 expires Friday) and aluminum flat — no margin of safety, sidelines
Down 6.13% to $43.98 after a double miss (EPS $2.12 vs $2.31 expected), an alumina guidance cut, and Section 232 tariff costs — RSI 24.6. Aluminum itself is holding with LME stocks below 300kt for the first time since 2022; a company problem, not a metal problem. Pass.
Down 3.6% to $46.85 — aluminum flat, the stock catching down; RSI 28.5, sidelines
Down 1.0% to $48.58 — aluminum flatlined but the stock didn't; RSI 31, sidelines
Up 0.1% to $48.72, flatlining at RSI 31 — aluminum needs macro to pick its direction; sidelines
Down 0.1%, RSI 30.7, prone for a fifth day; an aluminum cycle bottom needs curtailment headlines, not oscillators
Up 0.4%, treading water at RSI 30.8; under a -35% monthly aluminum hammer, wait for cycle signals, not chart shapes
Down 1.0%, RSI 30.2; under a 35% monthly aluminum hammer there's no technical analysis, only the cycle
-1.7% at RSI 30.8, -36% month; the aluminum-beta knife is still falling
+2.4% aluminum beta bouncing after a 35% month; 12.5x, the knife just landed
A +2.5% bounce after a 38% monthly collapse; 12x aluminum beta — the knife just hit the floor and is still bouncing
-8.9% on volume, -39% on the month; the aluminum thesis is deteriorating and the knife is still falling