Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (10 issues)
China's lithium limit-up wave didn't spill over: ALB sat at -0.5%, RSI 26 oversold — US lithium is still waiting for its own right-side signal
Oversold at RSI 27.6 but lithium hasn't bottomed; the 24-analyst +70% upside is paper wealth — wait for the right side
Down 4.2% to $119.46 at RSI 26.4, pinned by the lithium glut plus the risk-off; sidelines
Down 3.1% to $124.74 — lithium's global supply glut isn't cleared, and RSI 29.6 is just a footnote to the slide; sidelines
Down 0.2% to $125.79, RSI 27.7 — same cell block as Ganfeng and Tianqi; lithium's supply glut speaks every language; sidelines
Down 1.8%, RSI 27.9 at fresh lows as Goldman's lithium script plays on; LAC's -6.7% shows the chain has no survivors
Down 0.7%, RSI 29.2 with Goldman's lithium-surplus script still overhead; a fourth oversold day is not an entry thesis
A deceptive +0.3% steadying; with Goldman cutting lithium forecasts and a 20% H2 surplus, the RSI-29.8 hole is still deepening
-3.6% at RSI 29.3; left side of the lithium trough as the complex falls — wait for the turn
Lithium at RSI 31.9, -18% month; left-side at the lithium-cycle trough, sidelines