Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (11 issues)
RSI at 29.6 sets up a bounce, but closing red on good news says the selling isn't done; a debt/FCF narrative doesn't heal in a day. Bottom-fishing a leveraged story mid-downgrade requires a right-side signal, not courage
Up 1.77% to $126.41, but one bounce does not change the story: a leveraged trade with the credit rating as collateral, BBB- one notch from junk. Down 32% on the month — not catching it.
Credit-narrative declines end only two ways: management delivers a credible funding/spending path, or the price falls until bond investors start buying the equity. Neither has appeared.
Up 3.6% to $132.49, the first respectable green candle after nine red — one bounce isn't a bottom; below a $145 reclaim it stays on the watchlist only
Knife-catching is a numbers game, not a courage contest — every day of a nine-day slide looks like the bottom. With a catalyst vacuum (earnings in September) and the raise not yet done, the debt narrative has no rebuttal; oversold can bounce here, it can't reverse.
Down 2.5%, RSI 30.9 on a second bottom probe; META selling compute cuts both ways — one more rival, one more valuation comp
RSI under 30 with zero stabilization signals — credit-fear declines don't obey oversold mean-reversion; in 2001 RSI camped below 20 for a month. Wait for structure, not for cheapness.
-1.5%, 5% off the 52-week low at RSI 29 — third test of the $134.57 line
+2.5% oversold bounce, RSI 30 just 7% off 52-week lows; the leveraged AI bet awaits a base
The $134.57 52-week low is the line everyone is watching: hold it and the oversold bounce targets the $170 gap zone; break it and systematic stops amplify the stampede. Headline risk (OpenAI IPO, financing announcements) can blow through any technical level — size for a 10% overnight gap.
Deep oversold + the street screaming mispricing = bounce setup, but the trend hasn't turned. Left-side entries only with small size and hard stops; exit on a break of the 52-week low at $134.6.