Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History1/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-07
- 2026-07-02Long$108.82 → closed $110.392026-07-22+1.44%
Brief History (11 issues)
Closing at a stop: below both the 50- and 200-day with a -6.6% month — when a defensive name declines this offensively, step out first; the ledger settles here
Dipped 0.62% to $114.2 but +2.0% on the week — the defensive king feeds on risk-off. Stay long.
Up 2.2% to $114.95 — the defense king back on its throne on a risk-off day; holding
Down 1.0% to $112.53 — defense routinely loses favor on a risk-on day; holding
Up 0.8% to $114.78 — defense doing exactly its job in a messy tape; holding
Up 1.5%, repair accelerating with a +4.2% week and RSI warming to 44; the defensive position holds
Down 0.8% with the defensive ebb, RSI idling at 39; not following COST's beating was itself a statement — holding
Up 1.4% as defensives caught a bid on oil-inflation day; the oversold repair continues, holding
+0.8% defensive warm-up; long +2.5%, oversold repair in progress, hold
-1.1%, long +1.7%; RSI 33.7 oversold, defensive retail long, hold
Extreme oversold + quality asset = high-probability technical bounce; the $105 platform plus $101 works as a double stop. First target: reclaim the 200-day.