Daily Brief Archive: August 4, 2026 — U.S. & Hong Kong Stock Analysis

Technicals — The regular session closed at $125.65, up 2.1%, but the real move came after hours, with the stock up nearly 12% on the print. On the daily chart price still sits below the 20-day ($128.71), 50-day ($130.49) and 200-day ($152.62), with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.7 — meaning the after-hours gap has a genuine shot at reclaiming both the 20- and 50-day in one move. Relative volume of 2.51 was among the highest on the board, evidence money was positioning ahead of the print. ATR is $6.32; resistance is the 200-day at $152.62, support the 52-week low at $106.37.

Fundamentals — Q2 FY26 EPS of $0.41 versus $0.28 expected was a 46.4% beat and the ninth consecutive quarter above consensus. Revenue of $1.94B grew 92.8%, with US commercial revenue up 149% to $764M. GAAP operating income of $912M carried a 47% margin, adjusted operating income of $1.19B a 62% margin, and the Rule of 40 score hit 155% — hypergrowth and deep profitability together, a genuinely rare combination in software. Full-year guidance was raised to $8.150–8.158B (+82%) with adjusted free cash flow of $4.5–4.7B.

News — Palantir reported Q2 after the close on 8/3, beating across the board and sharply raising full-year guidance, with 149% US commercial growth the headline — a direct answer to the year's running debate over whether AI demand is real. Shares surged nearly 12% once the call wrapped. Notably, the market's prior framing was that a beat without a raise wouldn't move the stock; Palantir lifted full-year US commercial guidance above $3.424B, at least 134% growth, clearing that bar with room to spare.

Technicals — It closed at $829.50, up just 0.79%, essentially flat on a day the Nasdaq gained 2.1% — clearly weak relative strength. Price sits below the 20-day ($903.93) and 50-day ($966.80) while remaining far above the 200-day ($521.31): the intermediate trend is intact, the short-term trend is not. RSI(14) at 44.1 is neutral, with the stock down 11.0% on the week and 20.4% on the month. ATR of $88.83 equates to roughly 10.7% daily range, among the highest of any large-cap here. The $800 round number is both psychological and technical support; below it the next meaningful level is near $700.

Fundamentals — Trailing revenue is up 167%, EPS up 697%, on a 72.6% gross margin — against a multiple of just 18.8x. That is the classic shape of a cyclical top: exploding earnings inflate the denominator and flatter the apparent P/E. DRAM average selling prices have reached a ten-year peak of $1.17, with DDR5 16Gb spot up 0.72% and DDR4 16Gb up 0.57% on 8/3. Management says supply tightness persists beyond 2027 and has signed a five-year pricing lock. The debate isn't about how good today's cash flow is — it's whether the market will pay for the next leg of the cycle.

News — Micron fell as much as 3.5% to $794.59 in early trading on 8/3 after reports on Chinese rival ChangXin Memory (CXMT) revived supply-risk fears, before scraping out a +0.79% close. This is a continuation of the same thread that drove the CXMT Shanghai-listing panic in the last brief. The central tension is stark: spot prices are rising while the stock falls, meaning investors are discounting the durability of future pricing rather than the strength of present demand.

Technicals — It closed at $322.08, up 3.49%, yet remains below the 20-day ($359.05), 50-day ($388.86) and 200-day ($411.06) — a thoroughly bearish stack. Price sits just 8.3% above the $297.38 52-week low after falling 24.7% on the month and 29.6% year to date. RSI(14) at 36.8 approaches oversold without reaching an extreme, and RSI(7) at 39.8 is similarly soft — technically this is not yet a level where selling is exhausted. Relative volume of 0.81 shows the bounce came on light participation, without confirming flows. ATR is $16.64.

Fundamentals — It trades at 299.2x trailing earnings with EPS down 37.7%, revenue up 11.8%, and a gross margin of just 18.9%. Last quarter brought record deliveries of 480,126 and record revenue of $28.24B, yet profitability disappointed — which is precisely the problem: volume is growing while profit shrinks. The Street's $376.83 target implies 17.0% upside on a 1.74 rating, the closest to neutral of any deep-dive name here, which says the institutions aren't sure either.

News — Tesla rose 3.49% with the tape on 8/3 without a standalone catalyst — the move came from optimism around the next-generation vehicle platform and a broader risk-appetite recovery. More consequential is a Wall Street Journal report that executives are weighing multiple divestiture paths for the China business, a major strategic variable for a company that treats China as a core manufacturing and demand base. Shares have fallen from a July high near $425 toward the $297.38 low, down 26.83% on the month.