Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position History0/1 closed trades won · profitable since 2026-07-11
- 2026-07-07Long$552.05 → closed $500.942026-07-17-9.26%
Brief History (14 issues)
Down 8.15% with the sector at RSI 39.2, breaking ~14% below the 20-day. A 149x multiple offers little support while the sector de-grosses — remain on the sidelines
Gave back 2.3% after a +6% week — the Microsoft tie-up and Helios opening to Cerebras chips show the platform play; 7.7% off the high into early-August earnings, sidelines
Led big-cap semis with +8.1% as the Microsoft AI partnership tailwind runs, but 6.9% off the high the chase math is mediocre — talk again at the 50-day
Off 1.03% to $495.76. The exit on the $518 break looks better every day — down 8.9% on the week since. Second-fiddle beta keeps taking hits. Watching from the sidelines.
This long settles near -9% since the 7/7 entry. Relative strength drove the exit: within a sector you hold only the strongest, and right now that isn't AMD.
Down 3.5% to $529.14 in the memory sympathy hit, 2.1% above the $518 stop — trailing NVIDIA by a full length is getting conspicuous; a break means exit
Down 4.2% to $534.39 in the semis sympathy hit, 3% above the $518 stop — collateral fire; only a break means surrender
Up 2.0% to $557.90, extending record territory — META's 14GW buildout feeds it too; stop raised to $518, holding
Holding: trend intact, RSI unstretched — but trading above sell-side targets means sentiment is doing the pushing now. Stop raised from $495 to $508 (half an ATR under the 20-day) to lock gains.
Up 0.3% as the sector steadied, still consolidating at the 20-day; stop stays $495, holding
Keep the long: structure intact, the 7/23 event is a clear catalyst. But tighten the stop to $495 (one buffer below the round number), and don't add — volatility only grows into the event.
The Advancing AI catalyst plus an impending breakout favor a momentum long. But a slope this steep isn't for fresh heavy size; stop below the $500 round number. A 7% ATR on 181x amplifies any sector panic.
A trend this steep isn't for fresh heavy positions — 7% daily ATR on a 170x multiple amplifies any sector panic. Holders should trail stops to protect gains; those flat should wait for the 50-day squat.
No edge chasing here; wait for the prior platform. A 50-day break would downgrade the trend itself. Target the 52-week high at $585.