Daily Brief Archive: August 4, 2026 — U.S. & Hong Kong Stock Analysis

Technicals — The stock closed at $487.65, up roughly 25% in three sessions, reclaiming both the 20-day ($401.91) and 50-day ($400.74) and leaving the 200-day ($433.45) underfoot — a textbook flip from broken to bullish alignment. The cost is an RSI(14) of 78.3 and RSI(7) of 88.8, squarely extreme overbought. An ATR of $16.79 makes 3.4% daily swings routine. The 52-week high at $553.72 sits 13.5% above; first support is the $433 shelf where old resistance becomes the 200-day, with the $400 moving-average cluster beneath.

Fundamentals — FY26 Q4 (ended 6/30) revenue reached $90B, up 18% year over year, with Azure growing 43% and crossing $100B in annualized revenue for the first time. A 27.2x trailing multiple against 31.5% EPS growth puts the PEG comfortably below 1, on a 67.9% gross margin. That combination is scarce inside the $4T club — the market had been pricing Microsoft as an AI-capex black hole, and the quarter simply refuted the narrative with Azure's cash flow.

News — On 8/3 Microsoft added roughly $450B of market value in a single session — the largest one-day gain by a US public company on record. Citi lifted its target to $600 from $570, explicitly framing Azure and Copilot growth as the answer to the bears; Wolfe Research moved to $550 and Piper Sandler matched at $550, citing 43% constant-currency Azure growth and 30M-plus Copilot seats. Microsoft was also added to Goldman Sachs' top picks list the same day, while Iran de-escalation lifted software broadly.

Technicals — It closed at $373.51, up 4.88%, capping a 14.9% week, above both the 20-day ($348.41) and 50-day ($358.43) with the 200-day ($326.91) far below — a clean bullish stack. RSI(14) at 61.1 is still healthy and RSI(7) at 72.8 is warm but not extreme, leaving more headroom than MSFT. ATR is $12.86. The 52-week high at $408.61 is only 9.4% away and marks the clearest resistance; the 50-day at $358 and 20-day at $348 form stepped support beneath.

Fundamentals — Q2 2026 revenue was $119.8B, up 24%, on $9.11 EPS, with Google Cloud and AI infrastructure demand driving the acceleration. The trailing multiple sits at just 18.8x against 112% EPS growth and a 60.9% gross margin — the cheapest valuation in the $4T cohort. One caveat: recent results include roughly $98B of investment gains, which flatters the headline multiple; on an operating basis the discount is real but narrower than the screen suggests.

News — Alphabet rose 4.88% on 8/3, triggered directly by Morgan Stanley's reassurance on AI capex. The company plans roughly $200B of capex this year — a figure that spooked investors last week — and Morgan Stanley said it's fine, the same argument that lifted META. Accelerating adoption of the latest Gemini models on Google Cloud Platform was also read as tangible progress on AI monetization. FactSet's average target of $427.90 implies about 16% upside.

Technicals — It closed at $590.24, up 6.02%, yet the chart remains among the weakest in megacap tech: price sits below the 20-day ($620.30), 50-day ($601.89) and 200-day ($633.90) simultaneously, with the bearish stack still intact. RSI(14) at 47.0 is neutral-to-soft, meaning a 6% day only dragged it out of oversold rather than into overbought. ATR is a hefty $26.29. Genuine trend confirmation requires reclaiming the 50-day at $601.89; support sits near $560 and the 52-week low at $520.26.

Fundamentals — Last quarter's $6.18 EPS badly missed the $7.17 consensus even as revenue beat — the shortfall came entirely from AI spending eating profit. Trailing revenue growth of 27.7% and an 81.7% gross margin remain best-in-class, but trailing EPS is down 3.9% year over year, evidence that capex is genuinely denting earnings. A 22.2x multiple isn't expensive for that growth, provided $145B of investment eventually converts into revenue.

News — META traded up as much as 6.6% intraday on 8/3 and closed +6.02%. The catalyst was the same as Alphabet's: Morgan Stanley reassured investors about record AI infrastructure investment. Meta confirmed capex of up to $145B this year after last week's selloff on the large EPS miss, and the Morgan Stanley note was read as a verdict that the money is well spent. Broad risk appetite from Iran de-escalation supplied the tailwind.

Technicals — It closed at $303.42, down 1.78%, falling on a day the Dow printed a record and the Nasdaq gained 2.1% — dismal relative strength. The four-session drawdown now exceeds 10%, taking price through the 20-day ($323.90) and 50-day ($309.52); the only structural support left is the 200-day at $278.24, still 8.3% below. RSI(7) at 26.7 is oversold while RSI(14) at 40.3 is not yet extreme — a technical bounce is due, but the trend has already broken.

Fundamentals — Q3 revenue of $109.4B rose 16% — the highest third quarter in company history — and EPS beat. But Q4 guidance of 9–11% growth implies roughly $113B against a $114.9B consensus. At 34.8x trailing earnings Apple is the most expensive name in this group, paired with 14.2% revenue growth and a 48.7% gross margin; in a rising memory-cost cycle that valuation offers no cushion. The Street's $328.01 average target implies just 8.1% upside, the lowest of any deep-dive name here.

News — Apple posted its worst single-day decline in more than a year, falling as much as 7.35% intraday on 8/3. The core issue: Cook stated plainly that component shortages, memory chips above all, will keep constraining iPhone, Mac and iPad production through the September quarter while raising hardware costs. Barclays and GF Securities followed with downgrades. The irony is that the same memory inflation crushing Apple is what has been lifting MU and SNDK — one cycle, and the buyer of chips pays for the seller's feast.

Technicals — The regular session closed at $125.65, up 2.1%, but the real move came after hours, with the stock up nearly 12% on the print. On the daily chart price still sits below the 20-day ($128.71), 50-day ($130.49) and 200-day ($152.62), with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.7 — meaning the after-hours gap has a genuine shot at reclaiming both the 20- and 50-day in one move. Relative volume of 2.51 was among the highest on the board, evidence money was positioning ahead of the print. ATR is $6.32; resistance is the 200-day at $152.62, support the 52-week low at $106.37.

Fundamentals — Q2 FY26 EPS of $0.41 versus $0.28 expected was a 46.4% beat and the ninth consecutive quarter above consensus. Revenue of $1.94B grew 92.8%, with US commercial revenue up 149% to $764M. GAAP operating income of $912M carried a 47% margin, adjusted operating income of $1.19B a 62% margin, and the Rule of 40 score hit 155% — hypergrowth and deep profitability together, a genuinely rare combination in software. Full-year guidance was raised to $8.150–8.158B (+82%) with adjusted free cash flow of $4.5–4.7B.

News — Palantir reported Q2 after the close on 8/3, beating across the board and sharply raising full-year guidance, with 149% US commercial growth the headline — a direct answer to the year's running debate over whether AI demand is real. Shares surged nearly 12% once the call wrapped. Notably, the market's prior framing was that a beat without a raise wouldn't move the stock; Palantir lifted full-year US commercial guidance above $3.424B, at least 134% growth, clearing that bar with room to spare.

Technicals — It closed at $829.50, up just 0.79%, essentially flat on a day the Nasdaq gained 2.1% — clearly weak relative strength. Price sits below the 20-day ($903.93) and 50-day ($966.80) while remaining far above the 200-day ($521.31): the intermediate trend is intact, the short-term trend is not. RSI(14) at 44.1 is neutral, with the stock down 11.0% on the week and 20.4% on the month. ATR of $88.83 equates to roughly 10.7% daily range, among the highest of any large-cap here. The $800 round number is both psychological and technical support; below it the next meaningful level is near $700.

Fundamentals — Trailing revenue is up 167%, EPS up 697%, on a 72.6% gross margin — against a multiple of just 18.8x. That is the classic shape of a cyclical top: exploding earnings inflate the denominator and flatter the apparent P/E. DRAM average selling prices have reached a ten-year peak of $1.17, with DDR5 16Gb spot up 0.72% and DDR4 16Gb up 0.57% on 8/3. Management says supply tightness persists beyond 2027 and has signed a five-year pricing lock. The debate isn't about how good today's cash flow is — it's whether the market will pay for the next leg of the cycle.

News — Micron fell as much as 3.5% to $794.59 in early trading on 8/3 after reports on Chinese rival ChangXin Memory (CXMT) revived supply-risk fears, before scraping out a +0.79% close. This is a continuation of the same thread that drove the CXMT Shanghai-listing panic in the last brief. The central tension is stark: spot prices are rising while the stock falls, meaning investors are discounting the durability of future pricing rather than the strength of present demand.

Technicals — It closed at $1,288.03, up 6.03%. After bottoming at $1,015.89 on 7/29, the stock ripped 25.99% on 7/30 to $1,279.96, giving the $1,000 round number a live test it passed. Price remains below the 20-day ($1,486.57) and 50-day ($1,707.12) and sits 45.3% under the June high of $2,354.39, though far above the 200-day at $848.89. RSI(14) is a neutral 43.2. An ATR of $198.21 implies a 15.4% daily range — the most extreme volatility on the board, and any position must be sized as a wager rather than an investment.

Fundamentals — Trailing revenue is up 82.8% on a 56.0% gross margin, at a 44.8x multiple. Last quarter surging NAND prices plus AI-driven storage demand produced record revenue growth and materially better profitability, with the margin expansion showing effective cost pass-through. The stock is still up 427% year to date and 2,953.7% over one year — a base that forces any valuation discussion to start by acknowledging you are looking at a cyclical that has already run its primary advance.

News — SanDisk gained 6.03% on 8/3 (some feeds show +3.48%), extending its repair off the $1,000 support test as sentiment improved. The decisive event lies ahead: fiscal Q4 and full-year results land on 8/5, with the Street expecting strong year-over-year growth from AI and enterprise storage demand. From the $2,335 close on 6/25 to $1,015.89 on 7/29 the stock fell 56.49% — this print decides whether the bounce is a bottom or a way station.

Technicals — It closed at $85.76, up 19.49% — the largest gain of any large-cap on the board. Price reclaimed the 20-day ($77.86) outright but remains under the 50-day ($93.44) and 200-day ($94.58), sitting 44.0% below the $153.20 high. RSI(14) at 53.0 just returned to neutral and RSI(7) at 63.2 is warm without being overbought. Relative volume of 1.65 alongside a 19.5% move confirms real buying rather than a thin squeeze. ATR of $8.19 means a 9.5% daily range. The $93–95 twin-moving-average cluster overhead is the level that decides what this rebound actually is.

Fundamentals — Trailing revenue grew 129.9%, but the gross margin is just 34.8%, trailing EPS is down 21.7%, and the company is not yet profitable. This is the classic asset-heavy AI-cloud model: explosive revenue growth funded by relentless capex and debt, with $8.5B of loans serving as both fuel and shackle. Unlike the hyperscalers, CoreWeave has no self-funded cash-flow cushion, which makes its sensitivity to the AI demand cycle a leveraged one.

News — CoreWeave surged 19.49% on 8/3 on three stacked catalysts. Truist upgraded to Buy after a 42% pullback, citing strong AI compute demand and a valuation gap versus other neoclouds. Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform with a $150 target, arguing AI demand runs roughly four times current supply and expecting Q2 revenue at the top of guidance. And lenders completed an $8.5B loan restructuring alongside a new Leidos partnership that pushes CoreWeave Federal into secure US defense and intelligence workloads.

Technicals — It closed at $157.97, down 6.88%, on 6.42x relative volume — a textbook news-driven volume break. Price sliced through the 20-day ($171.43), 50-day ($178.57) and 200-day ($184.31) in one session, leaving a complete bearish stack. RSI(7) at 22.5 is deeply oversold and RSI(14) at 32.3 is close behind, so a technical bounce is available — but the decline reflects a structural repricing on news rather than pure sentiment selling. The 52-week low at $141.77, 10.3% below, is the only clear support beneath.

Fundamentals — It trades at 23.9x trailing earnings with EPS up 17.0% but revenue growth of only 1.1% — the growth engine is visibly slowing, though a 73.9% gross margin remains excellent and a 1.94% yield offers a floor. The Street's $216.44 target implies 37.0% upside, among the widest discounts in today's deep dives. That gap says something specific: institutions believe the fundamentals are unchanged and only the deal-related uncertainty is new.

News — AstraZeneca plunged roughly 7.7% during Monday's US session on 8/3 (closing -6.88%) after the Financial Times reported merger talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a deal worth close to $400B; Reuters confirmed preliminary contact through a person familiar, though neither company confirmed talks remain active. Investor pushback centered on three points: AstraZeneca's own organic growth and pipeline make the strategic logic questionable; antitrust risk is severe, since the combined oncology portfolio would likely be the industry's broadest; and integration would drag on the existing growth trajectory. Berenberg said shares would 'likely remain depressed.' Notably BMY rose 0.24% the same day — the would-be target was the calmer of the two.

Technicals — It closed at $322.08, up 3.49%, yet remains below the 20-day ($359.05), 50-day ($388.86) and 200-day ($411.06) — a thoroughly bearish stack. Price sits just 8.3% above the $297.38 52-week low after falling 24.7% on the month and 29.6% year to date. RSI(14) at 36.8 approaches oversold without reaching an extreme, and RSI(7) at 39.8 is similarly soft — technically this is not yet a level where selling is exhausted. Relative volume of 0.81 shows the bounce came on light participation, without confirming flows. ATR is $16.64.

Fundamentals — It trades at 299.2x trailing earnings with EPS down 37.7%, revenue up 11.8%, and a gross margin of just 18.9%. Last quarter brought record deliveries of 480,126 and record revenue of $28.24B, yet profitability disappointed — which is precisely the problem: volume is growing while profit shrinks. The Street's $376.83 target implies 17.0% upside on a 1.74 rating, the closest to neutral of any deep-dive name here, which says the institutions aren't sure either.

News — Tesla rose 3.49% with the tape on 8/3 without a standalone catalyst — the move came from optimism around the next-generation vehicle platform and a broader risk-appetite recovery. More consequential is a Wall Street Journal report that executives are weighing multiple divestiture paths for the China business, a major strategic variable for a company that treats China as a core manufacturing and demand base. Shares have fallen from a July high near $425 toward the $297.38 low, down 26.83% on the month.