Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (13 issues)
Continue holding (maintaining long), explicitly without adding. Fundamentals fully support the position: a 43.7% EPS beat, full-year guidance raised by nearly three dollars, 5.0% same-facility growth and 10.1x earnings still undemanding post-revision. But RSI7 at 89.4 is extremely overbought, price is 0.02% from the 52-week high and just 5.5% from the $277 consensus target, so near-term risk/reward has turned asymmetric. The stop moves up to $236, near the top of the prior $230–240 breakout shelf (about 2.3 ATR below spot), locking in most of the move while allowing room to breathe. The $277 target matches consensus. A pullback into $240–248 — between the 20-day and the breakout shelf — would be the rational place to add.
Position: +1.9%, holding the 50-day with +22% consensus upside on the hospital operator, hold
A +6.2% week back above the 50-day; the hospital operator keeps its +24% consensus upside — hold
Down 2.15% to $194.9, -6.2% on the week by HCA association after its guide-down exposed payer-mix risk across hospitals. THC's own Q1 beat and a Moody's upgrade keep the thesis alive — Q2 has to prove the mix. Stay long, conviction trimmed.
Up 3.6% to $199.20, hospitals resurrecting for a second day as money floods old-economy healthcare; holding
Up 4.7% to $192.34, a full-blood rebound from the hospital panic — yesterday's sector guilt, today's comeback; stop stays $186, holding
Down 4.6% to $194.81 as hospital names got hit together (HCA -3.9%) — a sector move, not a story change; stop tightened to $186, holding
Down 1.2%, a fourth day of high consolidation with RSI cooling 70→66 — healthy digestion, holding
Up 0.2%, a third day of high-level chop digesting RSI 69.7; the defense-plus-momentum combo holds
Down 1.2% in a high consolidation; RSI 69 is warm so no adds — the defense-plus-momentum combo holds
+1.3% to fresh rebound highs; long +2.5%, the defense-plus-momentum combo holds
Hospital +1.2%, long +1.2%, +26% month; 10.7x, defense-plus-momentum, hold
Hospital operator +6.6% on a volume breakout; 10.6x earnings is a rare blend of defense and momentum