Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Position Historyprofitable since 2026-07-07
- 2026-07-04Long$203.72 → open → $267.05+31.09%
Brief History (22 issues)
Flat at the highs with ADX 38 trend strength intact and a 10x P/E still cheap. RSI at 72 is warm and only 5.5% remains to target—this is trend money now, not valuation money. Holding, with an exit on a close below the 20-day at 241.
Up 2.83% pressing the 52-week high at 269.31, with a +30.7% month and ADX at 37 showing rare trend strength; RSI 71.8 runs hot and 25 analysts leave just 5.6% of headroom, but a 10x P/E is almost indecently cheap — staying long while tightening the trailing stop
Essentially flat at -0.18% with RSI at 69.0, 27.8% above the 50-day and just 10.0x earnings — visibly cheap for hospital services. The ledger already shows 27.6%, and it sits 2.2% off its high — position maintained.
Down 0.84% with RSI at 69.4, well above the 50-day at $201.37 and 2.0% from its high; a 10.0x multiple against a $281.91 target from 25 analysts — position maintained.
Up 2.14% into 52-week-high territory with RSI overbought at 71.3, though a 10.1x multiple against 66% EPS growth still supports it after a 27.2% month. Maintaining the long.
Down 1.95% in give-back from highs with RSI overbought at 69.4, though a 9.9x multiple against 66% EPS growth still supports it after a 23.2% month. Maintaining the long.
Up 3.3% to a new high, RSI 74 warm and only ~7% consensus upside — hold, with narrowing room ahead.
Up 1.34% with RSI overbought at 70.9, though a 9.8x multiple against 66% EPS growth still supports it after a 31.9% month. Maintaining the long.
Q2 EPS of $9.89 tripled year over year on 16% revenue growth at a 9x forward multiple; today's 1.88% dip is giveback from highs, and Wells Fargo lifted its target to $281. Maintaining the long.
Continue holding (maintaining long), explicitly without adding. Fundamentals fully support the position: a 43.7% EPS beat, full-year guidance raised by nearly three dollars, 5.0% same-facility growth and 10.1x earnings still undemanding post-revision. But RSI7 at 89.4 is extremely overbought, price is 0.02% from the 52-week high and just 5.5% from the $277 consensus target, so near-term risk/reward has turned asymmetric. The stop moves up to $236, near the top of the prior $230–240 breakout shelf (about 2.3 ATR below spot), locking in most of the move while allowing room to breathe. The $277 target matches consensus. A pullback into $240–248 — between the 20-day and the breakout shelf — would be the rational place to add.
Position: +1.9%, holding the 50-day with +22% consensus upside on the hospital operator, hold
A +6.2% week back above the 50-day; the hospital operator keeps its +24% consensus upside — hold
Down 2.15% to $194.9, -6.2% on the week by HCA association after its guide-down exposed payer-mix risk across hospitals. THC's own Q1 beat and a Moody's upgrade keep the thesis alive — Q2 has to prove the mix. Stay long, conviction trimmed.
Up 3.6% to $199.20, hospitals resurrecting for a second day as money floods old-economy healthcare; holding
Up 4.7% to $192.34, a full-blood rebound from the hospital panic — yesterday's sector guilt, today's comeback; stop stays $186, holding
Down 4.6% to $194.81 as hospital names got hit together (HCA -3.9%) — a sector move, not a story change; stop tightened to $186, holding
Down 1.2%, a fourth day of high consolidation with RSI cooling 70→66 — healthy digestion, holding
Up 0.2%, a third day of high-level chop digesting RSI 69.7; the defense-plus-momentum combo holds
Down 1.2% in a high consolidation; RSI 69 is warm so no adds — the defense-plus-momentum combo holds
+1.3% to fresh rebound highs; long +2.5%, the defense-plus-momentum combo holds
Hospital +1.2%, long +1.2%, +26% month; 10.7x, defense-plus-momentum, hold
Hospital operator +6.6% on a volume breakout; 10.6x earnings is a rare blend of defense and momentum