Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (16 issues)
Up 3.04% on official S&P 500 inclusion, with WSB mentions exploding 17 to 102 in 24 hours and squeeze chatter everywhere. Yet price sits below all three SMAs (166/175/178), 44% off the highs — hype is leading, trend hasn't turned. Watch for a reclaim of 166.
Up 3.40% extending the repair but with RSI still weak at 42.5, down 10.8% on the week and below all three moving averages; the 36.8% consensus upside needs trend confirmation first; sidelines.
Up 9.98% repairing the 20% post-earnings overreaction on 61% Q2 revenue growth and above-consensus Q3 guidance — but still below all three moving averages and down 20.3% on the month. A bounce is not a reversal; sidelines.
Down 0.44%, about 1% under the 200-day and -23.1% YTD. Ad monetization visibility is thin, and while 35 analysts target $230, the trend is unconfirmed — close and observe
Position: a deep -15.5% weekly giveback, but the AI-licensing-plus-ads thesis is unchanged — hold above $155
A +10% month back above the 50-day as the AI-licensing-plus-ads story repairs — hold
Down 2.2% to $181.2, -12% on the week with zero stock-specific news — pure AI de-risking. Wedbush names it top pick at $250 anyway. The $179 floor sits 1.2% below: break it and we walk. Long, on a tight leash.
Down 6.5% to $185.26, losing a round in the $200 tug-of-war; $179 — the old 20-day floor — is the last line, and a break ends the fight
Down 2.6%, back under $200 — the round-number tug-of-war continues; above the 20-day, holding
Up 2.9% to reclaim $200.93 — in week three of the tug-of-war at the round number, bulls finally scored; holding
Down 2.5%, losing $200 again in a third week of tug-of-war at the round number; patience holds while the 20-day ($179) does
Up 2.6%, back above $200 as the AI data-licensing story rewarmed with the tape — holding
Down 2.1% below the $200 mark — healthy give-back after an 11.6% week; the 20-day ($177) is far below, holding
-0.7% holding near $200; long +0.8%, healthy digestion after a 19% week
+3.2% back over $200, +19% week, long +1.6%; reclaiming the 200-day strengthens the trend
+13.9% breakout on volume; WSB mentions up 13x in 24h. Strong momentum but RSI 64 runs hot