Methodology: each issue's direction is a live signal — long/short opens or holds a position, neutral means flat, and every direction change opens, flips, or closes it. Returns are direction-aware (a short gains when the price falls) and compound across positions from first observation to the latest issue. "Price move" is the stock's own raw change, shown separately. Neither represents actual portfolio performance.
Brief History (12 issues)
Closing: two cycles waiting for a turnaround that never fired — RSI 39, flat and 26% under the 200-day. The right-side signal never came; admitting the mistake costs less than more waiting
The turnaround hasn't turned: RSI 48, drifting 23% below the 200-day — the long stays, but on the back row of the watch list
Down 1.82% to $43.76. Be clear what this is: a left-side bet into a declining-revenue cycle — guidance calls for low-to-mid single-digit declines for three more quarters, Greater China -17%. The $41.5 stop is non-negotiable. Stay long.
Up 4.2% on volume to $44.57 — the turnaround's second confirmation candle finally printed; stop raised to $41.50, holding
Down 0.2% to $42.77 — the turnaround position's patience phase; structure intact above both averages, holding
Down 1.4% to $43.76 — a routine throwback after the confirmation candle; above both averages the turnaround case stands, holding
Up 3.7% on volume through both the 20- and 50-day; a month of base-grinding finally answered — the turnaround's first confirmation candle
Down 0.3%, still grinding the base — a turnaround name's daily routine; nothing new, holding
Down 0.7%, still basing; turnarounds are ground out, not waited out — holding
-0.3% basing; long +0.3%, the turnaround needs patience, hold
-1.7%, long +0.7%; +5% week but -32% YTD, a turnaround long, hold
+4.9% bounce on volume; a -46%-from-high turnaround bet that needs earnings confirmation