Daily Brief Archive: August 4, 2026 — U.S. & Hong Kong Stock Analysis

Technicals — The stock closed at $487.65, up roughly 25% in three sessions, reclaiming both the 20-day ($401.91) and 50-day ($400.74) and leaving the 200-day ($433.45) underfoot — a textbook flip from broken to bullish alignment. The cost is an RSI(14) of 78.3 and RSI(7) of 88.8, squarely extreme overbought. An ATR of $16.79 makes 3.4% daily swings routine. The 52-week high at $553.72 sits 13.5% above; first support is the $433 shelf where old resistance becomes the 200-day, with the $400 moving-average cluster beneath.

Fundamentals — FY26 Q4 (ended 6/30) revenue reached $90B, up 18% year over year, with Azure growing 43% and crossing $100B in annualized revenue for the first time. A 27.2x trailing multiple against 31.5% EPS growth puts the PEG comfortably below 1, on a 67.9% gross margin. That combination is scarce inside the $4T club — the market had been pricing Microsoft as an AI-capex black hole, and the quarter simply refuted the narrative with Azure's cash flow.

News — On 8/3 Microsoft added roughly $450B of market value in a single session — the largest one-day gain by a US public company on record. Citi lifted its target to $600 from $570, explicitly framing Azure and Copilot growth as the answer to the bears; Wolfe Research moved to $550 and Piper Sandler matched at $550, citing 43% constant-currency Azure growth and 30M-plus Copilot seats. Microsoft was also added to Goldman Sachs' top picks list the same day, while Iran de-escalation lifted software broadly.

Technicals — It closed at $373.51, up 4.88%, capping a 14.9% week, above both the 20-day ($348.41) and 50-day ($358.43) with the 200-day ($326.91) far below — a clean bullish stack. RSI(14) at 61.1 is still healthy and RSI(7) at 72.8 is warm but not extreme, leaving more headroom than MSFT. ATR is $12.86. The 52-week high at $408.61 is only 9.4% away and marks the clearest resistance; the 50-day at $358 and 20-day at $348 form stepped support beneath.

Fundamentals — Q2 2026 revenue was $119.8B, up 24%, on $9.11 EPS, with Google Cloud and AI infrastructure demand driving the acceleration. The trailing multiple sits at just 18.8x against 112% EPS growth and a 60.9% gross margin — the cheapest valuation in the $4T cohort. One caveat: recent results include roughly $98B of investment gains, which flatters the headline multiple; on an operating basis the discount is real but narrower than the screen suggests.

News — Alphabet rose 4.88% on 8/3, triggered directly by Morgan Stanley's reassurance on AI capex. The company plans roughly $200B of capex this year — a figure that spooked investors last week — and Morgan Stanley said it's fine, the same argument that lifted META. Accelerating adoption of the latest Gemini models on Google Cloud Platform was also read as tangible progress on AI monetization. FactSet's average target of $427.90 implies about 16% upside.

Technicals — It closed at $590.24, up 6.02%, yet the chart remains among the weakest in megacap tech: price sits below the 20-day ($620.30), 50-day ($601.89) and 200-day ($633.90) simultaneously, with the bearish stack still intact. RSI(14) at 47.0 is neutral-to-soft, meaning a 6% day only dragged it out of oversold rather than into overbought. ATR is a hefty $26.29. Genuine trend confirmation requires reclaiming the 50-day at $601.89; support sits near $560 and the 52-week low at $520.26.

Fundamentals — Last quarter's $6.18 EPS badly missed the $7.17 consensus even as revenue beat — the shortfall came entirely from AI spending eating profit. Trailing revenue growth of 27.7% and an 81.7% gross margin remain best-in-class, but trailing EPS is down 3.9% year over year, evidence that capex is genuinely denting earnings. A 22.2x multiple isn't expensive for that growth, provided $145B of investment eventually converts into revenue.

News — META traded up as much as 6.6% intraday on 8/3 and closed +6.02%. The catalyst was the same as Alphabet's: Morgan Stanley reassured investors about record AI infrastructure investment. Meta confirmed capex of up to $145B this year after last week's selloff on the large EPS miss, and the Morgan Stanley note was read as a verdict that the money is well spent. Broad risk appetite from Iran de-escalation supplied the tailwind.

Technicals — The regular session closed at $125.65, up 2.1%, but the real move came after hours, with the stock up nearly 12% on the print. On the daily chart price still sits below the 20-day ($128.71), 50-day ($130.49) and 200-day ($152.62), with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.7 — meaning the after-hours gap has a genuine shot at reclaiming both the 20- and 50-day in one move. Relative volume of 2.51 was among the highest on the board, evidence money was positioning ahead of the print. ATR is $6.32; resistance is the 200-day at $152.62, support the 52-week low at $106.37.

Fundamentals — Q2 FY26 EPS of $0.41 versus $0.28 expected was a 46.4% beat and the ninth consecutive quarter above consensus. Revenue of $1.94B grew 92.8%, with US commercial revenue up 149% to $764M. GAAP operating income of $912M carried a 47% margin, adjusted operating income of $1.19B a 62% margin, and the Rule of 40 score hit 155% — hypergrowth and deep profitability together, a genuinely rare combination in software. Full-year guidance was raised to $8.150–8.158B (+82%) with adjusted free cash flow of $4.5–4.7B.

News — Palantir reported Q2 after the close on 8/3, beating across the board and sharply raising full-year guidance, with 149% US commercial growth the headline — a direct answer to the year's running debate over whether AI demand is real. Shares surged nearly 12% once the call wrapped. Notably, the market's prior framing was that a beat without a raise wouldn't move the stock; Palantir lifted full-year US commercial guidance above $3.424B, at least 134% growth, clearing that bar with room to spare.

Technicals — It closed at $85.76, up 19.49% — the largest gain of any large-cap on the board. Price reclaimed the 20-day ($77.86) outright but remains under the 50-day ($93.44) and 200-day ($94.58), sitting 44.0% below the $153.20 high. RSI(14) at 53.0 just returned to neutral and RSI(7) at 63.2 is warm without being overbought. Relative volume of 1.65 alongside a 19.5% move confirms real buying rather than a thin squeeze. ATR of $8.19 means a 9.5% daily range. The $93–95 twin-moving-average cluster overhead is the level that decides what this rebound actually is.

Fundamentals — Trailing revenue grew 129.9%, but the gross margin is just 34.8%, trailing EPS is down 21.7%, and the company is not yet profitable. This is the classic asset-heavy AI-cloud model: explosive revenue growth funded by relentless capex and debt, with $8.5B of loans serving as both fuel and shackle. Unlike the hyperscalers, CoreWeave has no self-funded cash-flow cushion, which makes its sensitivity to the AI demand cycle a leveraged one.

News — CoreWeave surged 19.49% on 8/3 on three stacked catalysts. Truist upgraded to Buy after a 42% pullback, citing strong AI compute demand and a valuation gap versus other neoclouds. Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform with a $150 target, arguing AI demand runs roughly four times current supply and expecting Q2 revenue at the top of guidance. And lenders completed an $8.5B loan restructuring alongside a new Leidos partnership that pushes CoreWeave Federal into secure US defense and intelligence workloads.

Technicals — It closed at HK$181.60, up 11.48%, flagged by both the HK hot and HK breakout screens. Price sits above the 20-day (HK$158.18), 50-day (HK$143.29) and 200-day (HK$121.23) in perfect bullish alignment, just 2.7% below the HK$186.60 high. The cost is RSI(14) at 76.0 and RSI(7) at 86.4, firmly overbought. Relative volume of 2.7x confirms a genuine volume breakout. ATR is HK$8.36. Both A- and H-shares gapped up on 8/4, with the H-shares spiking more than 14% intraday — short-term sentiment is already euphoric.

Fundamentals — First-half 2026 revenue reached RMB28.90B, up 38.93%, with net profit of RMB11.08B up 29.43% — the first time net profit has crossed RMB10B. Q2 alone brought RMB16.46B with growth accelerating to 47.71%, an acceleration rather than a fade. Full-year revenue guidance was lifted sharply from RMB51.3–53.0B to RMB58.5–60.5B, and continuing-operations growth guidance from 18–22% to 35–39%. Backlog stood at RMB66.43B at quarter end, up 25.2% — the substantive basis for the raise. The stock trades at 24.2x trailing earnings against 82.2% EPS growth.

News — WuXi AppTec released interim results and comprehensively raised full-year guidance on the evening of 8/3, igniting the entire CXO complex. Both A- and H-shares gapped up on 8/4, with the H-shares spiking over 14% intraday and CXO-heavy Stock Connect healthcare ETFs gaining more than 5% in a session. Peers moved with it: WuXi Bio +4.43%, Pharmaron +7.93%. The broader Hang Seng closed +0.48% back above 26,000 on 8/3 with southbound net buying of HK$11.03B, concentrated in healthcare and platforms — policy and flows both blowing the same direction for CXO.

Technicals — It closed at HK$127.80, up 2.08% (the 8/3 Hong Kong session itself printed HK$125.2, +7.01%), extending a 35.7% monthly gain and a 44.2% recovery from the HK$88.65 low. Price holds above the 20-day (HK$114.04) and 50-day (HK$111.51) but remains 7.5% under the 200-day at HK$138.19 — the last gate left to clear. RSI(14) at 69.0 is near overbought with RSI(7) at 79.5 already hot. ATR is HK$5.37. That HK$138.19 200-day is the line separating a repair from a genuine reversal.

Fundamentals — It trades at 21.2x trailing earnings, but trailing EPS is down 16.7%, revenue growth is just 4.6%, and the gross margin is 39.3% — the reported fundamentals are unremarkable. This rally isn't being priced off the income statement; it's an AI asset rerating. Alibaba is the only Chinese company that owns the cloud, trains the model, and holds the commerce monetization surface to close the loop. The Street's HK$184.97 target implies 44.7% upside, the highest among today's Hong Kong deep dives.

News — Alibaba's H-shares rose 7.01% to HK$125.2 on 8/3, catalyzed by the formal launch of Qwen3.8, a next-generation foundation model with 2.4 trillion total parameters and materially stronger coding and professional productivity capabilities. On the latest third-party Arena leaderboard, the Qwen series ranks second only to Anthropic's Claude family. Tencent rose 3.2% to HK$490.4 the same day as AI application names rallied broadly and the HS Tech index closed +0.96%. Southbound net buying of HK$11.03B leaned into platforms. From the HK$88.65 low, the advance now exceeds 42%.

Technicals — It finished flat at HK$490.00, down 0.08% (the 8/3 Hong Kong session itself closed +3.2% at HK$490.4), capping a 9.4% week. Price holds above the 20-day (HK$464.91) and 50-day (HK$451.49) but sits 8.9% below the 200-day at HK$537.95. RSI(14) at 61.3 is healthily firm and RSI(7) at 70.3 is warm but manageable. Relative volume of just 0.36 is among the lowest on the board — a quiet advance, which in Hong Kong usually signals a stable shareholder base. ATR is HK$16.82, and the 200-day at HK$537.95 is this leg's core objective.

Fundamentals — At 17.6x trailing earnings with EPS up 21.3%, revenue growing 15.0%, a 54.8% gross margin and a 1.12% yield, this is among the best growth-to-valuation matches in today's deep dives, with a PEG comfortably under 1. Tencent's problem has never been fundamentals — it's the absence of a narrative that forces a rerating. WeChat's cash flow is stable to the point of boring, and in an AI tape, boring trades at a discount.

News — Tencent rose 3.2% to HK$490.4 on 8/3 alongside the broader platform complex, driven mainly by the AI application rally that followed Alibaba's Qwen3.8 launch, with the HS Tech index closing +0.96%. The Hang Seng gained 0.48% back above 26,000 on southbound net buying of HK$11.03B concentrated in platforms. Tencent had no standalone catalyst and traded as sector beta, but relative volume of just 0.36 shows the move came without meaningful turnover — the shareholder base did not loosen.