Daily Brief Archive: August 4, 2026 — U.S. & Hong Kong Stock Analysis

Technicals — The stock closed at $487.65, up roughly 25% in three sessions, reclaiming both the 20-day ($401.91) and 50-day ($400.74) and leaving the 200-day ($433.45) underfoot — a textbook flip from broken to bullish alignment. The cost is an RSI(14) of 78.3 and RSI(7) of 88.8, squarely extreme overbought. An ATR of $16.79 makes 3.4% daily swings routine. The 52-week high at $553.72 sits 13.5% above; first support is the $433 shelf where old resistance becomes the 200-day, with the $400 moving-average cluster beneath.

Fundamentals — FY26 Q4 (ended 6/30) revenue reached $90B, up 18% year over year, with Azure growing 43% and crossing $100B in annualized revenue for the first time. A 27.2x trailing multiple against 31.5% EPS growth puts the PEG comfortably below 1, on a 67.9% gross margin. That combination is scarce inside the $4T club — the market had been pricing Microsoft as an AI-capex black hole, and the quarter simply refuted the narrative with Azure's cash flow.

News — On 8/3 Microsoft added roughly $450B of market value in a single session — the largest one-day gain by a US public company on record. Citi lifted its target to $600 from $570, explicitly framing Azure and Copilot growth as the answer to the bears; Wolfe Research moved to $550 and Piper Sandler matched at $550, citing 43% constant-currency Azure growth and 30M-plus Copilot seats. Microsoft was also added to Goldman Sachs' top picks list the same day, while Iran de-escalation lifted software broadly.

Technicals — It closed at $373.51, up 4.88%, capping a 14.9% week, above both the 20-day ($348.41) and 50-day ($358.43) with the 200-day ($326.91) far below — a clean bullish stack. RSI(14) at 61.1 is still healthy and RSI(7) at 72.8 is warm but not extreme, leaving more headroom than MSFT. ATR is $12.86. The 52-week high at $408.61 is only 9.4% away and marks the clearest resistance; the 50-day at $358 and 20-day at $348 form stepped support beneath.

Fundamentals — Q2 2026 revenue was $119.8B, up 24%, on $9.11 EPS, with Google Cloud and AI infrastructure demand driving the acceleration. The trailing multiple sits at just 18.8x against 112% EPS growth and a 60.9% gross margin — the cheapest valuation in the $4T cohort. One caveat: recent results include roughly $98B of investment gains, which flatters the headline multiple; on an operating basis the discount is real but narrower than the screen suggests.

News — Alphabet rose 4.88% on 8/3, triggered directly by Morgan Stanley's reassurance on AI capex. The company plans roughly $200B of capex this year — a figure that spooked investors last week — and Morgan Stanley said it's fine, the same argument that lifted META. Accelerating adoption of the latest Gemini models on Google Cloud Platform was also read as tangible progress on AI monetization. FactSet's average target of $427.90 implies about 16% upside.

Technicals — It closed at $590.24, up 6.02%, yet the chart remains among the weakest in megacap tech: price sits below the 20-day ($620.30), 50-day ($601.89) and 200-day ($633.90) simultaneously, with the bearish stack still intact. RSI(14) at 47.0 is neutral-to-soft, meaning a 6% day only dragged it out of oversold rather than into overbought. ATR is a hefty $26.29. Genuine trend confirmation requires reclaiming the 50-day at $601.89; support sits near $560 and the 52-week low at $520.26.

Fundamentals — Last quarter's $6.18 EPS badly missed the $7.17 consensus even as revenue beat — the shortfall came entirely from AI spending eating profit. Trailing revenue growth of 27.7% and an 81.7% gross margin remain best-in-class, but trailing EPS is down 3.9% year over year, evidence that capex is genuinely denting earnings. A 22.2x multiple isn't expensive for that growth, provided $145B of investment eventually converts into revenue.

News — META traded up as much as 6.6% intraday on 8/3 and closed +6.02%. The catalyst was the same as Alphabet's: Morgan Stanley reassured investors about record AI infrastructure investment. Meta confirmed capex of up to $145B this year after last week's selloff on the large EPS miss, and the Morgan Stanley note was read as a verdict that the money is well spent. Broad risk appetite from Iran de-escalation supplied the tailwind.

Technicals — It closed at $303.42, down 1.78%, falling on a day the Dow printed a record and the Nasdaq gained 2.1% — dismal relative strength. The four-session drawdown now exceeds 10%, taking price through the 20-day ($323.90) and 50-day ($309.52); the only structural support left is the 200-day at $278.24, still 8.3% below. RSI(7) at 26.7 is oversold while RSI(14) at 40.3 is not yet extreme — a technical bounce is due, but the trend has already broken.

Fundamentals — Q3 revenue of $109.4B rose 16% — the highest third quarter in company history — and EPS beat. But Q4 guidance of 9–11% growth implies roughly $113B against a $114.9B consensus. At 34.8x trailing earnings Apple is the most expensive name in this group, paired with 14.2% revenue growth and a 48.7% gross margin; in a rising memory-cost cycle that valuation offers no cushion. The Street's $328.01 average target implies just 8.1% upside, the lowest of any deep-dive name here.

News — Apple posted its worst single-day decline in more than a year, falling as much as 7.35% intraday on 8/3. The core issue: Cook stated plainly that component shortages, memory chips above all, will keep constraining iPhone, Mac and iPad production through the September quarter while raising hardware costs. Barclays and GF Securities followed with downgrades. The irony is that the same memory inflation crushing Apple is what has been lifting MU and SNDK — one cycle, and the buyer of chips pays for the seller's feast.

Technicals — It closed at HK$127.80, up 2.08% (the 8/3 Hong Kong session itself printed HK$125.2, +7.01%), extending a 35.7% monthly gain and a 44.2% recovery from the HK$88.65 low. Price holds above the 20-day (HK$114.04) and 50-day (HK$111.51) but remains 7.5% under the 200-day at HK$138.19 — the last gate left to clear. RSI(14) at 69.0 is near overbought with RSI(7) at 79.5 already hot. ATR is HK$5.37. That HK$138.19 200-day is the line separating a repair from a genuine reversal.

Fundamentals — It trades at 21.2x trailing earnings, but trailing EPS is down 16.7%, revenue growth is just 4.6%, and the gross margin is 39.3% — the reported fundamentals are unremarkable. This rally isn't being priced off the income statement; it's an AI asset rerating. Alibaba is the only Chinese company that owns the cloud, trains the model, and holds the commerce monetization surface to close the loop. The Street's HK$184.97 target implies 44.7% upside, the highest among today's Hong Kong deep dives.

News — Alibaba's H-shares rose 7.01% to HK$125.2 on 8/3, catalyzed by the formal launch of Qwen3.8, a next-generation foundation model with 2.4 trillion total parameters and materially stronger coding and professional productivity capabilities. On the latest third-party Arena leaderboard, the Qwen series ranks second only to Anthropic's Claude family. Tencent rose 3.2% to HK$490.4 the same day as AI application names rallied broadly and the HS Tech index closed +0.96%. Southbound net buying of HK$11.03B leaned into platforms. From the HK$88.65 low, the advance now exceeds 42%.

Technicals — It finished flat at HK$490.00, down 0.08% (the 8/3 Hong Kong session itself closed +3.2% at HK$490.4), capping a 9.4% week. Price holds above the 20-day (HK$464.91) and 50-day (HK$451.49) but sits 8.9% below the 200-day at HK$537.95. RSI(14) at 61.3 is healthily firm and RSI(7) at 70.3 is warm but manageable. Relative volume of just 0.36 is among the lowest on the board — a quiet advance, which in Hong Kong usually signals a stable shareholder base. ATR is HK$16.82, and the 200-day at HK$537.95 is this leg's core objective.

Fundamentals — At 17.6x trailing earnings with EPS up 21.3%, revenue growing 15.0%, a 54.8% gross margin and a 1.12% yield, this is among the best growth-to-valuation matches in today's deep dives, with a PEG comfortably under 1. Tencent's problem has never been fundamentals — it's the absence of a narrative that forces a rerating. WeChat's cash flow is stable to the point of boring, and in an AI tape, boring trades at a discount.

News — Tencent rose 3.2% to HK$490.4 on 8/3 alongside the broader platform complex, driven mainly by the AI application rally that followed Alibaba's Qwen3.8 launch, with the HS Tech index closing +0.96%. The Hang Seng gained 0.48% back above 26,000 on southbound net buying of HK$11.03B concentrated in platforms. Tencent had no standalone catalyst and traded as sector beta, but relative volume of just 0.36 shows the move came without meaningful turnover — the shareholder base did not loosen.

Technicals — It closed at HK$27.76, down 0.72%, and is off 11.3% from HK$31.30 on 7/29. Price barely holds above the 20-day (HK$27.47) and 50-day (HK$26.41) but sits 19.6% under the 200-day at HK$34.54, leaving the intermediate bearish stack intact. RSI(14) at 52.0 is neutral and RSI(7) at 46.6 is soft. Down 4.9% on the week but still up 20.8% on the month, this reads as giveback after a run rather than a trend break. The stock is down 29.5% year to date and 48.0% over one year, with relative volume of just 0.31 — a quiet decline, not panic selling.

Fundamentals — At 19.3x trailing earnings with EPS up 12.7% and revenue up 12.8%, Xiaomi carries a gross margin of just 22.1% — the structural weakness of a hardware business, amplified in a memory-inflation cycle. On 8/2 the company raised prices by RMB300–500 across the REDMI Turbo 5, Xiaomi 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max: cost pass-through, not improved bargaining power. Cumulative EV deliveries have passed 700,000, the most imaginative part of the valuation and also the most capex-hungry.

News — In late July Xiaomi launched the Pengcheng series N90 Max (1,705 km combined range) and N70 Max — the 7/30 technology event that last cycle's long was built around. The event delivered and the stock did not follow through, sliding from HK$31.30 to HK$27.76. On 8/2 Xiaomi raised prices by RMB300–500 across several phone models, pointing directly at rising memory chip costs — the same supply chain that forced Apple to guide down, seen from the other end. Cumulative EV deliveries topped 700,000 as of late July.